Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_95
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
Despite a weekend heat wave forecast, the market is overwhelmingly confident that Jacksonville's high on July 25 stayed below 95°F, likely because the accompanying storms (FL Times-Union, Jul 24) are expected to cap temperatures with cloud cover and rain.
📊 Base rate: Based on 30-year climate normals, the historical probability of Jacksonville reaching 95°F on July 25 is about 10-15%, making the current 2% odds significantly lower than the base rate, reflecting a specific forecast of storms capping temperatures.
What's driving it
- • The July 24 forecast of 'extreme heat, storms ahead' (FL Times-Union) suggests that while temperatures could be high, storm activity may prevent reaching 95°F.
- • Earlier headlines showing dramatic temperature swings (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27; FL Times-Union, Feb 19) indicate that Jacksonville's weather is volatile, but the most recent forecast points to a moderating influence from storms.
- • The odds have remained at 2% for Yes, indicating that the market has consistently priced in a low probability based on the stormy forecast, not just a general heat wave.
The case for YES
- • If the heat wave is intense enough and storms are scattered or occur later in the day, the high could still reach 95°F before clouds and rain cool things down.
- • The 'extreme heat' part of the forecast (FL Times-Union, Jul 24) implies temperatures could flirt with record highs, making 95°F plausible.
- • Jacksonville has seen rapid temperature spikes before (Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9), so a brief surge to 95°F is possible even with storms.
The case for NO
- • Storms typically bring cloud cover and rain, which suppress daytime heating and lower the high temperature, making 95°F unlikely.
- • The market's 2% odds reflect strong consensus that the forecast for storms will keep the high below 95°F, and no contrary information has emerged.
- • Historical data shows that July 25 highs in Jacksonville average around 91°F, and 95°F is a significant outlier that requires clear skies and intense heat, which the storm forecast contradicts.
What to watch
- • Release of the official high temperature for July 25 from the National Weather Service (likely within hours) will definitively resolve the market; current odds suggest a No outcome.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance