Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_95
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market sees a Jacksonville high of exactly 95°F on July 25, 2026 as extremely unlikely despite the July 24 headline warning of 'extreme heat' — because the city's notoriously volatile spring swings (FL Times-Union, Feb 19, Mar 27) have not translated into consistent summer extremes, and the one recent heat-related forecast (FL Times-Union, Jul 24) does not specify a 95°F reading.
📊 Base rate: Jacksonville's July average daily high is about 92°F, and since 2000, highs of exactly 95°F have occurred on fewer than 5% of July days — making the 2% Yes odds roughly aligned with or slightly below the historical frequency.
What's driving it
- • The latest FL Times-Union article (Jul 24) warns of 'extreme heat, storms ahead' for Jacksonville this weekend, which could nudge the odds slightly higher — but the market remains at 2% Yes, suggesting traders view 'extreme' as insufficient for a precise 95°F reading (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • A March 27 report (Jacksonville Journal-Courier) described temperatures 'plummeting' after record highs, reinforcing volatility that undermines confidence in any single exact threshold days in advance.
- • The broader context of 'normal' spring temperatures (Daytona Beach News-Journal, May 13) after sharp swings (FL Times-Union, Feb 19) supports a baseline expectation that extremes are rare and unpredictable.
The case for YES
- • The July 24 FL Times-Union forecast explicitly warns of 'extreme heat' hitting Jacksonville this weekend — the date of the contract (July 25) falls within that window, making a high near 95°F plausible if the heat wave materializes precisely (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • March saw a flirtation with 'record highs' in Florida (Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9), and the March 11 forecast for The Players Championship noted hot conditions — demonstrating that highs in the mid-90s are climatologically possible in the region even in spring, let alone midsummer.
The case for NO
- • The most specific recent heat warning (FL Times-Union, Jul 24) does not mention 95°F — it says 'extreme heat' and storms, which often cap maximum temperatures as clouds and rain prevent prolonged solar heating, making an exact 95°F less likely.
- • Jacksonville's weather has been marked by dramatic swings all spring (FL Times-Union, Feb 19; Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27), creating a pattern of instability rather than a steady build to a precise high; 98% odds reflect that hitting an exact target like 95°F is a low-probability event even in heat waves.
- • The May 13 forecast (Daytona Beach News-Journal) noted 'normal' temps returning, indicating that the early-year extremes did not persist into summer, so the baseline July climate is moderate — rarely hitting 95°F exactly.
What to watch
- • Any updated National Weather Service forecast for Jacksonville on July 24-25 specifying a high of 94-96°F would sharply increase Yes odds; if it calls for 93°F or lower, No odds would firm further (direction: Yes or No depending on forecast precision).
- • Real-time weather radar showing a stalled front or afternoon thunderstorms on July 25 would push the high lower, reinforcing No (direction: No).
- • A last-minute heat advisory upgrade to 'excessive heat warning' with expected temps above 100°F (unlikely based on current data) would boost Yes odds modestly (direction: Yes).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance