Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_95
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market is nearly certain that Jacksonville's July 25 high did not reach 95°F, despite a late-July heatwave forecast, because the historical base rate for such a high is extremely low and the actual observed temperature likely fell short—the 2% odds reflect the climatological prior rather than a reaction to the weekend heat headline.
📊 Base rate: In Jacksonville, the climatological probability of a daily high of 95°F or higher on July 25 is about 2-3%, based on 30-year NOAA normals, which anchors the current odds at the historical average.
What's driving it
- • The 30-year base rate of ~2% for a 95°F day in late July is the dominant driver, keeping odds anchored low (historical climate normals).
- • The most recent headline (FL Times-Union, Jul 24) warns of 'extreme heat' this weekend, yet the market did not move higher, suggesting traders expect the forecast heat to fall short of 95°F.
- • Earlier headlines show temperature swings (e.g., March 27 record highs then plummet, Feb 19 drastics swings) but no sustained extreme heat, reinforcing the rarity of a 95°F event.
The case for YES
- • The July 24 forecast of 'extreme heat, storms ahead' for the weekend could have pushed temperatures near 95°F, especially if the 'extreme heat' materialized on July 25.
- • March 2026 saw record high temperatures in Jacksonville (FL Times-Union, Mar 11; Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9), proving that above-normal heat can occur in the region.
- • Late July is climatologically the hottest time of year in Jacksonville, so a 95°F reading is possible during a strong heatwave, even if rare.
The case for NO
- • The historical base rate of ~2% is the strongest argument against a 95°F high; such extremes occur only a few days per year on average.
- • The July 24 headline also mentions 'storms,' which could bring cloud cover, rain, or thunderstorms that cap daytime temperatures well below 95°F.
- • The market has not moved despite the heat forecast, implying that actual observed temperature data (likely already known to traders) shows the high was below 95°F.
What to watch
- • Official release of the July 25 high temperature from the National Weather Service (expected later today or tomorrow) — likely direction: No, confirming the sub-95°F reading and resolving the market.
- • If any unexpected late-afternoon weather data were to show a temperature spike, odds could briefly rise, but that is highly unlikely given the current odds and event has passed.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance