Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 10% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 10% right now.
Despite historic heatwaves and record-breaking temperatures earlier in 2026, the market is overwhelmingly betting against an exact high of 78°F in Los Angeles on July 26, reflecting the climatological rarity of such a mild summer reading and the persistent warming trend.
📊 Base rate: Historically, Los Angeles' average high temperature on July 26 is about 85°F, and the probability of an exact reading of 78°F is less than 5% based on daily temperature distributions.
What's driving it
- • Record-breaking March heatwave across the US West (The Guardian, Mar 19; USA Today, Mar 17) pushed expectations for summer temperatures higher, reducing the likelihood of a cooler 78°F high.
- • Persistent ocean heat records off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) suggest a warm marine environment that makes unusually cool summer days less probable.
- • Over 1,500 temperature records shattered in the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22) indicates a broader warming pattern that further skews odds against a mild 78°F reading.
The case for YES
- • A strong marine layer or coastal eddy could keep the Los Angeles basin cooler than inland areas, potentially bringing the high to exactly 78°F.
- • The extreme heat earlier in the year does not guarantee a specific temperature on July 26; natural variability could still produce a below-average day.
- • Historical data shows that 78°F is within the observed range of July highs, even if uncommon, and the current odds of 10% may undervalue that possibility.
The case for NO
- • The record-breaking heatwave trend (over 1,500 records shattered) indicates a warmer-than-normal regime, making a relatively cool 78°F far less likely.
- • Climatologically, the average July high in Los Angeles is well above 78°F, so an exact reading of that temperature is a rare event (historical probability <5%).
- • Persistent ocean heat records (LA Times, Apr 16) reduce the chance of a cool marine layer intrusion that would be needed to hit 78°F.
What to watch
- • Weather forecast for July 26, 2026, issued by the National Weather Service on July 25 or 26: a forecast high near 78°F would sharply increase Yes odds, while a forecast above 85°F would push No odds even higher.
- • Any late-breaking heat advisory or cooling trend advisory (e.g., from LA County Heat Dashboard) on July 25-26 would directly affect the market's final movement.
- • Actual temperature readings throughout the day on July 26 will resolve the contract; early afternoon readings near 78°F would cause a surge in Yes odds before the market closes.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance