Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 22% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 22% right now.
The low 22% chance for LAX to hit 78°F on July 26 reflects the market's view that a near-normal summer day is more likely than not, even after a historic March heat wave and persistent marine heat in the Pacific.
📊 Base rate: Historical daily high for Los Angeles on July 26 ranges around 88°F (based on NWS long-term averages), so the 78°F threshold is about 10°F below the climatological normal, making it a cooler-than-average target.
What's driving it
- • A historic March heat wave shattered thousands of records across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22), yet the market still prices this July day low, suggesting traders expect seasonal moderation.
- • The ocean off California continues to set heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which normally would tilt odds higher, but the market remains overwhelmingly bearish.
- • LA County’s new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) signals local authorities are bracing for high-heat impacts in future summers, but for this specific date the odds haven't budged.
The case for YES
- • Persistent marine heat waves off California have repeatedly broken records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), raising the background risk of above-normal temperatures on any summer day.
- • The March heat wave was described as
- • and
- • suggesting the region could see extremes even in cooler months (The Guardian, USA Today, NYT, Mar 2026).
- • If a strong high-pressure ridge sets up over the West in late July, the typical marine layer could be suppressed, allowing temperatures to exceed a modest 78°F.
The case for NO
- • The 78°F target is about 10°F below the historical average high for July 26 in Los Angeles, so a cooler-than-normal day is inherently less likely to occur.
- • The historic March heatwave has no obvious correlation to a specific July day, and the ocean heat is a persistent background factor that hasn't yet moved the February-to-July forecast for this low threshold.
- • No recent headlines signal an imminent July heat anomaly; the most dramatic events (March heat wave, ocean records) are months old and have not been followed by new forecasts for late July.
What to watch
- • July 23–25: GFS or ECMWF model runs showing a trough off the California coast would push odds down further; a strong ridge would push them up sharply.
- • July 1–10: NWS Climate Prediction Center's 8–14 day outlook for late July: if it calls for 'high confidence of above-normal temperatures,' odds could rise toward 30–40%.
- • Late July heat wave warnings from NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard (e.g., 'excessive heat watch' issued 48–72 hours prior) would be the most direct catalyst to push odds above 50%.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance