Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_96
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
Despite a last-minute heat warning, the market is overwhelmingly confident that Jacksonville's high on July 25 stayed below 96°F, implying the forecasted extreme heat either fell short or was accompanied by storms that capped temperatures.
What's driving it
- • A July 24 headline warned of 'extreme heat, storms ahead for Jacksonville this weekend' (FL Times-Union), which could have nudged odds toward Yes, but the 2% price shows traders dismissed a 96°F outcome.
- • Older headlines show wild temperature swings (e.g., March 27 'frying pan into the freezer', February 19 'highs in 80s, lows in 30s'), reinforcing that Jacksonville's weather is volatile and a 96°F day is rare even in summer.
- • The market's 98% No price reflects that the specific threshold of 96°F is unusually high for Jacksonville's July 25 climatology, and no headline has provided evidence of such a reading.
The case for YES
- • The July 24 forecast explicitly mentioned 'extreme heat' for the weekend, which includes July 25, making a 96°F high plausible if the heat wave materialized without storm cooling.
- • Jacksonville has recorded temperatures near 96°F in summer; a March 9 headline noted Florida temps 'could flirt with record highs', showing the region can hit extreme levels even outside peak summer.
- • The market's 2% Yes price may be too low if the actual high reached 96°F, as the heat warning was issued just two days prior and could have been accurate.
The case for NO
- • The same July 24 headline paired 'extreme heat' with 'storms', which typically bring cloud cover and rain, lowering the maximum temperature below 96°F.
- • Historical data (not provided but implied by the 98% No odds) suggests that 96°F is a very high bar for Jacksonville in late July, and traders are pricing in a near-certain miss.
- • No headline from the actual event date (July 25) or later confirms a record or near-record high, and the market has not moved toward Yes despite the recent warning.
What to watch
- • Release of official National Weather Service data for July 25, 2026: if the recorded high is 96°F or above, the contract resolves Yes; otherwise No. This is the only remaining catalyst.
- • Any late-breaking news or social media reports from July 25 about Jacksonville's temperature could move the market before official data, but none have appeared in the provided headlines.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance