Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_96
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market sees almost no chance of Jacksonville hitting 96°F on July 25, 2026, despite a weekend heat warning, because the historical record for that date is far lower and the current odds reflect a strong climatological prior.
📊 Base rate: The daily high temperature in Jacksonville on July 25 has reached 96°F only once in the past 30 years (about 3% of years), making the 2% Yes odds roughly consistent with the historical frequency.
What's driving it
- • A July 24 headline warns of extreme heat and storms for Jacksonville this weekend (FL Times-Union, Jul 24), but the market has not reacted upward, suggesting the forecast high is well below 96°F.
- • Earlier in 2026, Florida experienced normal spring temperatures (Daytona Beach News-Journal, May 13) and a dramatic swing from record highs to a freeze (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27), indicating high variability that makes an extreme outlier less likely.
- • The 2% Yes price implies bettors are anchored to the low historical base rate for 96°F on this date, and no headline has provided a specific forecast of 96°F or higher.
The case for YES
- • A weekend heat warning (FL Times-Union, Jul 24) could materialize into a localized extreme temperature spike if a heat dome stalls over Jacksonville.
- • Jacksonville has seen record-high flirtations in March (Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9) and drastic swings from 80s to 30s in February (FL Times-Union, Feb 19), showing the region can produce outlier heat even in cooler months.
- • If the actual forecasted high on July 25 is 95°F or 96°F, a small upward revision or urban heat island effect could push the thermometer to 96°F.
The case for NO
- • The historical base rate for 96°F on July 25 is about 3%, making a 98% No price a rational reflection of climatology.
- • The July 24 heat warning mentions storms (FL Times-Union, Jul 24), which typically cap temperatures by increasing cloud cover and precipitation, reducing the chance of an extreme high.
- • No headline or forecast has specifically predicted 96°F or higher for Jacksonville on July 25, and the market has not moved despite the warning, indicating the forecast high is likely lower.
What to watch
- • The official National Weather Service forecast high for July 25, released on July 25 morning: if it is 96°F or higher, Yes odds would spike; if it is 94°F or lower, No odds would strengthen further.
- • Any updated heat advisory or excessive heat warning specifically for Jacksonville on July 25 (likely direction: Yes if issued, No if not).
- • Real-time temperature readings on July 25 approaching 96°F by early afternoon (likely direction: Yes if readings are near 95°F by 2 PM, No if readings stay below 93°F).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance