Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_96
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
Despite a weekend heat warning (FL Times-Union, Jul 24), the market is overwhelmingly confident Jacksonville will not hit 96°F on July 26, likely because the contract's threshold is extreme even for summer and recent months have shown volatile but not record-breaking heat.
📊 Base rate: In Jacksonville, July daily highs average around 91°F, and temperatures reaching 96°F occur only a few days per year, making a 2% implied probability roughly in line with historical frequency.
What's driving it
- • A July 24 heat warning for Jacksonville (FL Times-Union) might have briefly boosted Yes odds, but the market remains at 2%, suggesting traders see the warning as routine rather than extreme.
- • A May 13 report of 'normal' Florida temperatures (Daytona Beach News-Journal) reinforces the base-rate expectation that July 26 will not be an outlier.
- • March saw record highs followed by a sharp cold snap (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27), highlighting the region's volatility but not sustained extreme heat.
The case for YES
- • The July 24 heat warning (FL Times-Union) indicates a short-term hot spell that could push temperatures toward record levels.
- • March 9 forecasts of Florida flirting with record highs (Daytona Beach News-Journal) show that extreme heat is possible in the region.
The case for NO
- • The 98% No odds reflect strong market consensus that 96°F is too high a threshold for a typical July day in Jacksonville.
- • Recent months have featured normal to volatile temperatures (Daytona Beach News-Journal, May 13; Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27), not sustained extreme heat.
- • February's drastic swings (FL Times-Union, Feb 19) suggest Jacksonville's climate is variable but not prone to hitting 96°F on a given day.
What to watch
- • Actual temperature readings on July 26 will resolve the market; any midday reports of temperatures approaching 96°F would spike Yes odds.
- • A midday National Weather Service update forecasting a record high would likely increase Yes probability.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance