Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_96
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
Despite a weekend heat warning, the market is overwhelmingly confident Jacksonville's high will stay below 96°F on July 25, likely reflecting a specific forecast that the extreme heat will be accompanied by storms that cap temperatures.
📊 Base rate: Jacksonville's daily high in late July historically reaches 96°F or higher on about 5% of days, based on 30-year climate normals from NOAA.
What's driving it
- • The July 24 forecast of 'extreme heat, storms ahead' (FL Times-Union) suggests that while heat is expected, storms may limit the high temperature.
- • The 2% Yes price implies that the most recent weather models show a high well below 96°F, as the market heavily discounts the chance.
- • Earlier headlines showing temperature swings (e.g., March record highs and subsequent freezes) highlight Jacksonville's variability, but the current odds indicate a strong consensus against a 96°F reading.
The case for YES
- • The July 24 headline explicitly warns of 'extreme heat,' which could push temperatures close to 96°F if storms develop later in the day.
- • Jacksonville has seen record highs in March (FL Times-Union, Mar 11), showing that extreme heat is possible even outside peak summer.
- • The low 2% odds may overreact to a single forecast, leaving room for a surprise if the heat wave intensifies.
The case for NO
- • The July 24 forecast includes storms, which typically bring cloud cover and cooling, reducing the likelihood of reaching 96°F.
- • Historical climate data for late July in Jacksonville shows that 96°F is a rare threshold, with a base rate around 5%, and the market is pricing even lower due to specific conditions.
- • The market's 98% No price reflects strong confidence from forecast models that the high will be below 96°F, likely based on the latest numerical weather prediction.
What to watch
- • Official NWS temperature report for July 25, expected on July 26, will resolve the contract; if the high is 96°F or above, Yes will spike to 100%.
- • Any updated forecast from the National Weather Service on July 25 morning could move odds if it revises the predicted high upward or downward.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance