Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 12% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 12% right now.
Despite historic heatwaves and record ocean temperatures earlier in 2026, the market assigns only a 12% chance that Los Angeles will reach 78°F on July 25 — a threshold that historical climate data shows is exceeded over 90% of the time, suggesting the market is pricing in a specific cool weather pattern or forecast not evident in the provided headlines.
📊 Base rate: Historical Los Angeles July 25 high temperatures reach at least 78°F over 90% of the time (NOAA climate normals 1991–2020), making the current 12% Yes odds a major deviation from the prior.
What's driving it
- • The extreme heatwaves and ocean heat records earlier in 2026 (The Guardian, Mar 19; LA Times, Apr 16) might suggest a warmer trend, but the market is pricing the opposite, indicating a different factor is dominant.
- • The May 28 launch of LA County’s Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News) acknowledges high-temperature risks, yet the odds remain low, implying no near-term forecast of extreme heat on July 25.
- • The market’s heavy No bias may reflect a specific seasonal forecast (e.g., a strong marine layer) not captured in the provided headlines, as no headline provides a July 25 forecast.
The case for YES
- • The historic March heatwave shattered records across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22), suggesting a pattern of above-normal temperatures that could persist into July.
- • Ocean temperatures off California continue to break heat records (LA Times, Apr 16), which can fuel warmer coastal air and reduce the marine layer's cooling effect.
- • If the marine layer is weaker than usual, the inland heat could push coastal LA above 78°F, a typical July high.
The case for NO
- • The market is heavily skewed to No at 88%, likely reflecting a consensus forecast or climatological pattern that keeps July 25 below 78°F, such as a persistent marine layer.
- • Los Angeles’ coastal location often experiences a June gloom / July gloom pattern where morning clouds keep highs moderate, and no headline suggests a departure from that.
- • The lack of any recent heatwave headline for July 2026 implies that the extreme heat earlier in the year has subsided, and temperatures are near normal or cooler.
What to watch
- • Release of the 7-day forecast around July 18–20 will likely move odds; if a high-pressure ridge builds, Yes could rise to 20–30%, while a trough would push No higher.
- • The midday weather report on July 25 itself, particularly if a Santa Ana wind event or marine layer collapse is predicted, could cause a last-minute swing toward Yes.
- • If NOAA issues a special climate outlook for Southern California in early July, that could shift expectations; a hotter-than-normal outlook would raise Yes, a cooler outlook would lower it further.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance