Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 12% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 12% right now.
Despite record-breaking heat waves earlier in 2026, the market's 12% Yes odds for a 78°F high on July 25 indicate that short-term forecasts or actual conditions have overwhelmingly favored a cooler day, showing the limited predictive power of spring heatwaves for a single summer date.
📊 Base rate: Historically, downtown Los Angeles sees a daily high temperature of at least 78°F on about 80–90% of July days, making the current 12% Yes odds far below that historical base rate.
What's driving it
- • The odds are primarily driven by short-term weather forecasts for July 25, which are not reflected in the provided headlines from March–April (e.g., The Guardian, Mar 19).
- • The extreme heat events in March and April may have initially raised expectations for a hot summer, but the market's low Yes odds indicate that later forecasts or actual observations have overridden that narrative.
The case for YES
- • The historic March heatwave and persistent ocean heat waves off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) suggest a long-term warming trend that could elevate temperatures on any given summer day.
- • If the atmospheric patterns that caused the March heatwave recurred in late July, it could push temperatures above 78°F.
- • The 12% Yes odds, while low, leave a non-trivial chance that the actual temperature exceeded the threshold.
The case for NO
- • The overwhelming 88% No odds reflect a strong consensus from weather models, likely based on a cool marine layer or other local conditions that kept the high below 78°F.
- • No provided headline indicates unusually hot conditions specifically for late July, so the default expectation is a typical summer day, which often stays below 78°F in coastal Los Angeles due to the marine layer.
- • The earlier heatwaves were in March and spring, not necessarily predictive of a single day in July.
What to watch
- • No future catalysts remain, as the event date (July 25, 2026) has passed; the market is expected to resolve based on the actual temperature reading.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance