Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 8% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 8% right now.
The market heavily discounts a high of exactly 78°F in Los Angeles on July 26, 2026, reflecting a pattern of extreme heat that has shattered records and shifted the temperature distribution upward, making a moderate target like 78°F less likely than historical norms would suggest.
📊 Base rate: The historical average July high in Los Angeles is about 84°F, so a high of exactly 78°F is below average and occurs roughly 10-15% of the time in a typical year, but recent extreme heat events have pushed temperatures higher, lowering that baseline.
What's driving it
- • A historic March heatwave shattered over 1,500 records across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22), signaling a persistent hot pattern that raises the baseline for summer temperatures.
- • The ocean off California has repeatedly broken heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which tends to suppress coastal cooling and keep Los Angeles temperatures elevated.
- • LA County launched a Heat Dashboard to track heat-related illnesses and deaths (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28), underscoring official recognition of rising heat risks and likely reinforcing expectations of a hot summer.
The case for YES
- • A high of exactly 78°F is a specific, discrete value that could occur if a marine layer or morning clouds keep temperatures cooler than the surrounding days, a common summer pattern in coastal Los Angeles.
- • The odds at 8% are not far from the historical base rate of roughly 10-15% for a July high of 78°F or below, so the market may be overreacting to the extreme heat headlines.
The case for NO
- • The historic March heatwave and record ocean temperatures (The Guardian, Mar 19; Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) suggest a warmer-than-average summer, making a below-average high of 78°F less likely.
- • Extreme heat events have become more frequent and intense, as evidenced by the record-shattering March heat wave (USA Today, Mar 17; NYT, Mar 16), shifting the entire temperature distribution upward and reducing the probability of moderate highs.
What to watch
- • July 2026 monthly temperature outlook from NOAA (typically released in late June/early July) — if it forecasts above-average temperatures for Southern California, odds for No would increase further.
- • Any heatwave or record-breaking temperature event in the weeks leading up to July 26, 2026 — would push odds further toward No.
- • A strong marine layer or unusual June gloom pattern persisting into late July — could slightly increase Yes odds by suggesting cooler coastal conditions.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance