Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_76
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 90% chance — very likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 90% right now.
The market strongly expects Los Angeles to reach at least 76°F on July 26, reflecting typical summer warmth, but the 90% odds are slightly below the historical base rate, suggesting a small premium for the possibility of an unusual cool event.
📊 Base rate: The historical probability that Los Angeles experiences a daily high temperature of at least 76°F on July 26 is approximately 95%, based on 30-year climate normals from the National Weather Service.
What's driving it
- • No recent headlines provide a specific catalyst; the odds are driven by seasonal expectations for late July in Los Angeles.
- • The high probability is consistent with the typical summer pattern where marine layer influence diminishes and temperatures rise.
- • The odds have likely been stable near 90% for some time, reflecting a consensus that warm conditions are very likely but not certain.
The case for YES
- • Late July is climatologically the warmest period in Los Angeles, with average highs around 84°F, making 76°F a low threshold.
- • The marine layer that can keep coastal areas cool is less frequent and weaker in late July, reducing the chance of overcast conditions.
- • Long-term warming trends due to climate change have increased the frequency of days above 76°F in Los Angeles over the past decades.
The case for NO
- • A persistent marine layer or 'June gloom' can occasionally extend into late July, keeping temperatures below 76°F, especially near the coast.
- • An unusual cold front or trough moving into Southern California could bring cooler air and clouds, dropping the high below the threshold.
- • The 10% No probability captures rare but possible events like a strong storm system or anomalous offshore flow that suppresses temperatures.
What to watch
- • The release of the 7-day forecast around July 19 would likely confirm warm conditions, pushing Yes odds higher toward 95%.
- • Any unexpected shift in the Pacific jet stream pattern around July 20-23 could introduce uncertainty, potentially lowering Yes odds if a trough is indicated.
- • The morning of July 26 itself, with early cloud cover or fog, could serve as a last-minute catalyst; if skies are clear by midday, Yes odds would rise, while persistent overcast could drop them.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance