Phoenix Daily Temperature High — contract UHPHX_072526_115
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty of 115°F in Phoenix on July 26, driven by a historic heat wave that has already broken multiple records, but the forecast's precision and the possibility of a slight cooldown keep a small chance of No alive.
📊 Base rate: Phoenix has reached 115°F or higher on about 0.5% of all days historically (roughly 2-3 days per year on average), making the current 98% odds extremely high relative to the base rate.
What's driving it
- • Record-breaking heat on July 25, with both daytime and nighttime highs setting new marks, strongly suggests the heat wave is peaking now (azcentral.com, Jul 25).
- • An extreme heat warning was in effect on July 25, with temperatures already hitting record highs, increasing confidence that July 26 will also be extreme (FOX 10 Phoenix, Jul 25).
- • Earlier forecasts from July 5 and June 22 had already warned of potential 115°F temperatures, indicating this event was anticipated for weeks (AZ Family, Jul 5; azcentral.com, Jun 22).
The case for YES
- • The heat wave is at its apex, with consecutive days of record-breaking heat making another 115°F day highly likely on July 26.
- • Forecast models and official warnings have consistently pointed to this specific temperature threshold being reached or exceeded during this period.
- • The market's 98% odds reflect overwhelming consensus among traders that the conditions are already in place for a Yes outcome.
The case for NO
- • A slight shift in wind patterns or a passing cloud could shave a degree or two off the high, keeping it just below 115°F.
- • The historical base rate for 115°F in Phoenix is extremely low (about 0.5% of days), meaning the current odds are far above the climatological norm, leaving room for a surprise miss.
- • If the heat wave breaks slightly earlier than expected, the afternoon high on July 26 might peak at 114°F instead of 115°F, triggering a No resolution.
What to watch
- • The National Weather Service's final forecast update on the morning of July 26 could either confirm or slightly lower the predicted high, moving odds toward Yes or No accordingly.
- • Any report of a cooling trend or monsoon moisture arriving earlier than forecast would increase the chance of No.
- • If a new record is set on the morning of July 26 (e.g., overnight low), it would reinforce the Yes case and could push odds even higher.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance