Las Vegas Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAS_072526_112
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing near-certainty that Las Vegas hit the contract threshold on July 25, reflecting a summer of relentless record-breaking heat across the West, but the 98% odds also imply residual doubt from a possible last-minute shift or measurement error.
What's driving it
- • Historic March heatwave shattered records across the US West (The Guardian, Mar 19), setting an early precedent for extreme temperatures.
- • Triple-digit heat returned in May with forecasts of record-breaking temperatures in dozens of major cities (FOX Weather, May 11), reinforcing expectations for a hot summer.
- • A June forecast predicted Las Vegas would hit 108 degrees (KLAS 8 News Now, Jun 9), directly supporting the Yes outcome.
- • More than 100 daily high temperature records were expected through late March (CBS News, Mar 26), indicating a persistent pattern.
The case for YES
- • The sustained heatwave from March through July, with multiple record-breaking events, makes it highly likely that July 25 also set or approached a record high.
- • The June forecast of 108 degrees shows that temperatures were already reaching extreme levels well before the contract date.
- • No headlines suggest any cooling trend or unusual weather pattern that would prevent a high temperature on July 25.
The case for NO
- • The contract threshold might be set unusually high (e.g., 115°F or above), which even in a heatwave is rare for Las Vegas.
- • A last-minute thunderstorm or cloud cover could have suppressed the high temperature slightly below the threshold.
- • The 2% No odds reflect the possibility of a measurement error or a microclimate variation at the official recording station.
What to watch
- • Release of official NWS temperature data for July 25 (expected within 24 hours) would resolve the market, likely confirming Yes.
- • Any unexpected revision to the recorded high by the National Weather Service could move odds, but such revisions are rare and would likely maintain the Yes outcome.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance