Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 8% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 8% right now.
The contract is pricing a near-certain failure to hit exactly 78°F in Los Angeles on July 25, 2026—less about any single weather event and more about the long-term trend of coastal marine layer suppression of highs, even as record-breaking heat waves occur inland.
📊 Base rate: For Los Angeles (downtown/USC) on July 25 in the modern climate record (1991-2020), the daily high reaches or exceeds 78°F about 65% of days, so the current 8% Yes implies a massive discount for a specific exact temperature forecast a month out.
What's driving it
- • The persistent marine layer and coastal stratus in Los Angeles during late July typically cap highs near 75-80°F, even when inland areas bake; the current odds strongly reflect that climatological ceiling rather than any forecast bust (no recent headline directly contradicts this pattern).
- • Recent ocean heat records off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) actually strengthen the marine layer by increasing offshore temperature gradients, which can suppress coastal high temperatures, subtly supporting the No case.
- • The historic March 2026 heat wave shattered records across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22; The Guardian, Mar 19) but focused on inland deserts and valleys—Los Angeles proper saw moderated temperatures due to sea breezes, a pattern that reinforces skepticism of hitting exactly 78°F there in July.
The case for YES
- • If a strong Santa Ana wind event or a breakdown of the marine layer occurs exactly on July 25, a daytime high could spike well past the climatological average, hitting even 90+°F, making 78°F an easy Yes.
- • The region has shown capacity for extreme March highs (USA Today, Mar 17)—a comparable summer heat dome arrival could drive LA coastal temps above normal even with a strict definition of 'Los Angeles'.
- • The city's new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) was launched in response to rising heat-related illness, signaling official recognition that dangerous heat events are becoming more common.
The case for NO
- • Los Angeles coastal locations rarely reach or exceed 78°F in late July when the marine layer is strongest—median daily highs at LAX or Santa Monica in late July are often just 70-74°F, and even downtown/USC averages near 78°F but with wide variability making a precise hit unlikely.
- • The ocean off California has been persistently breaking heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which strengthens the marine inversion layer and actually depresses coastal afternoon highs.
- • The March 2026 heat wave (The Guardian, Mar 19) set records inland but did not translate to similar extremes at the immediate coast, demonstrating the resilience of the marine influence on LA's temperature.
What to watch
- • NOAA or NWS ensemble forecasts for July 24–26, 2026 (released around July 19–23): if models show a strong ridge or offshore flow, Yes odds would rise; if continued marine influence or troughing, No odds would further increase.
- • Local Los Angeles NWS discussion on July 23–24 noting morning fog depth and offshore wind projection: thin fog/offshore = move Yes; thick fog/onshore = move No.
- • Actual observed high temperature for July 24, 2026: if it is 80°F or above, the probability for the next day rises modestly toward Yes; if 75°F or below, No case strengthens.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance