Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 7% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 7% right now.
The 7% odds for a high of 78°F in Los Angeles on July 26, 2026, reflect a market pricing a cooler-than-normal day, despite a backdrop of extreme heat records and warming ocean trends that might suggest higher temperatures are more likely.
📊 Base rate: Historical data for Los Angeles shows that the average daily high on July 26 is around 84°F, with temperatures at or below 78°F occurring in roughly 10-15% of years, making the current 7% odds slightly below that historical frequency.
What's driving it
- • A historic March 2026 heatwave shattered over 1,500 records across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22), raising awareness of extreme heat but not directly predicting a specific July day.
- • The ocean off California continues to break heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which could influence coastal temperatures but also introduces uncertainty due to marine layer effects.
- • LA County’s new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) highlights increased monitoring of heat impacts, but no clear catalyst has recently shifted odds for this specific contract.
The case for YES
- • The March 2026 heatwave was described as 'unprecedented' and 'dangerous' (The Guardian, Mar 19; New York Times, Mar 16), suggesting a trend toward hotter extremes that could extend into summer.
- • Persistent ocean heat records off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) may contribute to warmer air temperatures by reducing the cooling effect of coastal upwelling.
The case for NO
- • The 78°F threshold is well below the historical average high of 84°F for late July in Los Angeles, making a cooler day inherently less likely without a specific cooling event.
- • Marine layer clouds and coastal fog are common in Los Angeles during early summer, often keeping temperatures below inland readings, and no headline indicates a strong cooling pattern for late July.
What to watch
- • Mid-July 2026 NOAA or NWS seasonal outlook updates could shift odds if they predict a cooler-than-normal July for Southern California (likely direction: increase No odds if cool forecast, increase Yes odds if hot forecast).
- • A strong El Niño or La Niña update by early July 2026 would affect temperature probabilities, with El Niño typically raising odds of warmer coastal temperatures (likely direction: increase Yes odds for El Niño, increase No odds for La Niña).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance