Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_81
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market is pricing an almost certain failure for Los Angeles to hit 81°F on July 26, 2026, reflecting a strong climatological prior that late July highs in LA typically exceed that threshold, but the extreme heat events earlier in 2026 have not shifted the odds because they occurred in March and April, not during the contract's specific date.
📊 Base rate: Historical data for downtown Los Angeles shows that the average daily high on July 26 is around 84°F, with a standard deviation of about 4°F, meaning temperatures above 81°F occur in roughly 75-80% of years, making the current 2% Yes odds extremely low relative to the historical prior.
What's driving it
- • The market's 98% No odds are anchored by the strong climatological expectation that late July in LA is typically hot, so the contract's threshold of 81°F is actually below the historical average high for that date, making a No resolution highly unlikely under normal conditions.
- • The extreme March 2026 heatwave that shattered records across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22) and the historic March heatwave in the US west (The Guardian, Mar 19) have not moved the odds because they occurred months before the contract date and do not directly predict a specific day's temperature in late July.
- • The persistent ocean heat records off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) could support a warmer baseline, but the market appears to dismiss this as insufficient to overcome the inherent variability of a single day's forecast.
The case for YES
- • The historic March 2026 heatwave that broke records across the US west (The Guardian, Mar 19) demonstrates that extreme heat events can occur earlier than usual, potentially signaling a pattern of above-normal temperatures that could persist into July.
- • The ocean off California has been breaking heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which can raise coastal air temperatures and reduce the marine layer, making it easier for LA to reach higher daytime highs.
- • The new LA County Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) indicates heightened official awareness of heat risks, but this is a monitoring tool, not a direct driver of temperature.
The case for NO
- • The historical average high for downtown Los Angeles on July 26 is approximately 84°F, meaning 81°F is actually a below-average threshold, so a No resolution would require an unusually cool day, which is rare but not impossible.
- • The extreme heat events in March 2026 (USA Today, Mar 17; NYT, Mar 16) were anomalous for that month but do not predict a specific day in July, and the market has not reacted to them, suggesting traders see them as irrelevant to this contract.
- • No recent headlines indicate any forecast or weather pattern specifically predicting a cool day on July 26, 2026, leaving the market's 98% No odds driven purely by the statistical improbability of a below-average high on that date.
What to watch
- • A medium-range forecast (e.g., 7-10 days out) from the National Weather Service predicting a strong marine layer or trough for July 26 would increase No odds further, as it would confirm a cooler-than-average day.
- • A long-range outlook from NOAA or private forecasters indicating a persistent heat dome over the Southwest in late July 2026 would increase Yes odds, as it would raise the probability of above-average temperatures.
- • The release of the official NWS point forecast for Los Angeles on July 24-25, 2026, would be the most direct catalyst, with a predicted high below 81°F pushing No odds to near 100% and a predicted high above 81°F potentially moving Yes odds upward.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance