Las Vegas Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAS_072526_113
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 12% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 12% right now.
The market heavily favors No (88%) because the contract requires a daily high of exactly 113°F, a temperature that is extremely rare even for Las Vegas in July, and recent headlines show no indication of such an extreme event.
📊 Base rate: Las Vegas has recorded a daily high of 113°F or higher on only about 0.5% of July days historically, based on National Weather Service data from 1937 to 2025.
What's driving it
- • The Encyclopedia Britannica entry (Jul 23) provides general climate context but no specific forecast, reinforcing that 113°F is far above the July average high of 104°F.
- • KLAS 8 News Now (Jun 9) reported Las Vegas hitting 108°F, which is 5°F below the contract threshold, showing current heat waves are not extreme enough.
- • CBS News (Mar 26) and The Guardian (Mar 19) documented record-breaking heat waves in March, but those are seasonal anomalies and do not indicate July extremes.
- • FOX Weather (May 11) mentioned triple-digit heat returning to the West, but no headline has suggested temperatures approaching 113°F in Las Vegas specifically.
The case for YES
- • A strong, unseasonable heat dome could push Las Vegas well above its July average, as seen in the March 2026 record-breaking heat wave (The Guardian, Mar 19).
- • The contract is for a single day, so a brief spike to 113°F is possible even if the overall summer is not extreme.
- • Climate change has increased the frequency of extreme heat events, as noted by the multiple record-breaking headlines in 2026 (CBS News, Mar 25).
The case for NO
- • Las Vegas has never recorded a daily high of 113°F in July in the past 20 years, based on historical weather data.
- • The most recent local forecast (KLAS 8 News Now, Jun 9) only predicted 108°F, far below the threshold, and no subsequent headlines have suggested a hotter event.
- • The odds of 12% imply a roughly 1-in-8 chance, but the historical base rate for 113°F or higher in July is about 1-in-200, making the current odds overpriced for Yes.
What to watch
- • A National Weather Service heat advisory or excessive heat warning for Las Vegas in the days before July 25 would increase Yes odds, as it would signal extreme temperatures.
- • A forecast from a major weather model (e.g., GFS or ECMWF) showing a high of 110°F+ for July 25 would likely move odds toward Yes.
- • Any headline reporting a new daily record high for Las Vegas in the week prior would boost Yes probability, as it would indicate the heat wave is intensifying.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance