Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_81
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that LA's high on July 26, 2026, will exceed 81°F, reflecting a strong climatological norm and recent extreme heat events, but the 2% Yes odds may be overly pessimistic given the possibility of a rare cool day.
📊 Base rate: For Los Angeles, the historical probability of a daily high temperature at or below 81°F on July 26 is roughly 5-10%, based on long-term climate data (NOAA), making the current 2% Yes odds slightly below the historical prior.
What's driving it
- • A historic March 2026 heatwave shattered over 1,500 records across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22), reinforcing expectations of above-normal temperatures.
- • The ocean off California has been breaking heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which tends to warm coastal air and reduce the chance of a cool day.
- • LA County launched a Heat Dashboard to track high-temp illnesses (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28), signaling official concern about persistent heat, not a cool outlier.
The case for YES
- • A strong marine layer or June Gloom pattern could persist into late July, keeping coastal LA below 81°F, as has happened in some past years.
- • The 2% odds imply a rare event, but historical data shows about 5-10% of July 26 highs are at or below 81°F, so the market may be overconfident in No.
The case for NO
- • July 26 is climatologically one of the hottest days of the year in LA, with average highs near 85°F, making a sub-81°F reading unlikely.
- • The record-breaking March heatwave (The Guardian, Mar 19) and ongoing ocean heat (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) suggest a warmer-than-normal summer baseline.
What to watch
- • Mid-July 2026 NOAA seasonal outlook update: if it predicts above-normal temps for Southern California, No odds would strengthen further.
- • Any unexpected cool spell or marine layer event in the week before July 26 could slightly boost Yes odds, though such events are rare in late July.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance