Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_76
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 95% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 95% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that LA will hit 76°F on July 26, 2026, reflecting a persistent regional warming trend and record-breaking heat events, but the extreme confidence may overlook the possibility of a cool marine layer or unusual weather pattern disrupting the streak.
📊 Base rate: Historical data for Los Angeles shows that the average daily high on July 26 is around 84°F, and temperatures have exceeded 76°F on roughly 95-99% of days in late July over the past 30 years, making the current odds consistent with the climatological baseline.
What's driving it
- • A historic March heatwave shattered over 1,500 records across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22), reinforcing expectations of above-normal temperatures.
- • The ocean off California continues to break heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which typically raises coastal air temperatures and reduces the chance of a cool day.
- • LA County’s new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) signals heightened institutional focus on heat risks, though this is a monitoring tool rather than a direct weather driver.
- • No clear recent catalyst explains the specific 95% level; the odds likely reflect long-standing seasonal norms rather than a fresh event.
The case for YES
- • The historical base rate for late July in LA strongly favors highs above 76°F, with the average high near 84°F, making a miss unlikely.
- • Persistent marine heatwaves off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) and record-shattering heat events earlier in 2026 (The Guardian, Mar 19) suggest a warm baseline that carries into summer.
- • The March heatwave demonstrated extreme temperature anomalies (USA Today, Mar 17), indicating the region is prone to above-normal conditions that could persist.
The case for NO
- • A strong marine layer or June Gloom pattern can occasionally suppress coastal temperatures by 10-15°F, making 76°F a non-trivial threshold even in July.
- • The extreme confidence (95%) leaves little room for the rare but possible cool day driven by an unusual trough or monsoon moisture, which has occurred in some past Julys.
- • No specific forecast for July 26 exists yet; long-range models have limited skill at that lead time, and the odds may overestimate certainty.
What to watch
- • Mid-July 2026: NOAA’s 8-14 day temperature outlook for late July will provide a more specific forecast; a cooler-than-normal outlook would shift odds down.
- • Late June 2026: Onset of the North American monsoon could increase cloud cover and lower daytime highs, potentially reducing the probability of reaching 76°F.
- • Early July 2026: Any major heatwave or cool spell in the Southwest would update the seasonal pattern and move odds accordingly.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance