Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_100
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 4% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 4% right now.
Despite a late-July heat wave forecast for Jacksonville, the market sees only a 4% chance of a record high on this specific date, suggesting traders believe the extreme heat will fall short of the all-time mark or that a cold front will arrive in time.
📊 Base rate: Jacksonville's daily high temperature on July 26 has historically exceeded 100°F only about 2% of the time over the past 30 years, making the current 4% odds slightly elevated relative to the historical prior.
What's driving it
- • A July 24 headline warns of 'extreme heat, storms ahead for Jacksonville this weekend' (FL Times-Union, Jul 24), which likely pushed the Yes odds up from a lower base but still leaves them at just 4%.
- • The broader context of a volatile spring—swings from record highs in March to a 'freezer' plunge (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27) and 80s-to-30s swings in February (FL Times-Union, Feb 19)—may make traders skeptical that a single day's heat will break records.
- • No headline specifically forecasts a record high for July 26, and the most recent forecast mentions storms, which could cap temperatures.
The case for YES
- • The July 24 forecast explicitly says 'extreme heat' is coming this weekend, which includes July 26, raising the possibility of a record high (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • Florida flirted with record highs in March (Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9), showing the region can hit extreme temperatures even outside peak summer.
- • The market's 4% odds may underprice the chance that a heat dome stalls over Jacksonville, as happened in other U.S. cities in recent summers.
The case for NO
- • The July 24 forecast also mentions storms, which often bring cloud cover and cooling rain that prevent record highs (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • Historical data shows July 26 rarely exceeds 100°F, and the spring's wild swings (e.g., a 50-degree drop in March) suggest the pattern is unstable, not persistently hot (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27).
- • No recent headline explicitly predicts a record high for this date, and the 'normal temps' in May (Daytona Beach News-Journal, May 13) indicate the summer has not been unusually hot so far.
What to watch
- • A National Weather Service update on July 25 or early July 26 specifying the forecast high for Jacksonville; if it exceeds 100°F, Yes odds would likely rise sharply.
- • Any report of a cold front or thunderstorm outbreak arriving on July 26 would push No odds higher.
- • Actual temperature readings on the morning of July 26—if already near 90°F by 10 a.m.—could signal a record-breaking afternoon and boost Yes.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance