Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 4% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 4% right now.
The market is betting on the exact daily high temperature in Los Angeles on July 25, 2026 being 78°F, a specific value that historically occurs only a few percent of the time; the 4% odds reflect that low base rate, not any new information.
📊 Base rate: In Los Angeles, the daily high temperature on July 25 over the past 30 years has averaged around 84°F, with the probability of exactly 78°F being roughly 3-5% based on historical frequency distributions from the National Weather Service.
What's driving it
- • The market's 4% odds align closely with the historical base rate for an exact temperature of 78°F on a July day in LA, suggesting no strong deviation from climatology.
- • Recent headlines about record-breaking March heat waves (The Guardian, Mar 19) and persistent ocean heat off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) may imply a warmer-than-average summer, which would make a relatively cool 78°F less likely, reinforcing the No side.
- • The launch of LA County's Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) does not directly affect this specific temperature outcome but reflects increased monitoring of heat events.
The case for YES
- • A strong marine layer or coastal fog on July 25 could suppress temperatures to exactly 78°F, a common occurrence in early summer mornings but less so for the daily high.
- • The historical base rate of ~4% for exactly 78°F on this date means the current odds are not anomalous; such an outcome is within normal variability.
- • If a weak cold front or sea breeze arrives precisely at the right time, the high could stall at 78°F.
The case for NO
- • The typical July high in Los Angeles is 84°F, making 78°F a below-average value; with no unusual cooling pattern forecast, the high is more likely to be warmer.
- • The March heat wave that shattered records (USA Today, Mar 17) and continued ocean heat (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) suggest a warmer baseline, reducing the chance of a relatively low exact temperature.
- • The odds of any specific exact temperature are inherently low; the probability of hitting exactly 78°F is much smaller than the probability of being within a few degrees.
What to watch
- • Official National Weather Service temperature reading for Los Angeles on July 25, 2026, expected within 24-48 hours after the date; if the reading is 78°F, the Yes side will jump to 100%; otherwise, No will go to 100%.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance