Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_80
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market overwhelmingly expects the Los Angeles daily high on July 25 to not be exactly 80°F, a view supported by a historical rarity of any specific temperature and a trend of above-normal heat from earlier in the year.
📊 Base rate: Omitting this field because I cannot ground a defensible historical statistic for the exact temperature of 80°F on a specific July day in Los Angeles from the provided materials.
What's driving it
- • The historic March heatwave that shattered records across the Southwest (The Guardian, Mar 19; USA Today, Mar 17) sets a precedent for an unusually hot summer, making a mild 80°F reading less likely.
- • Persistent ocean heat records off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) suggest a warmer Pacific, which typically moderates coastal temperatures but still points to an overall warmer pattern that would push the high above 80°F.
- • No recent headlines indicate any cooling trend or unusual weather patterns that would boost the probability of hitting exactly 80°F, leaving the default expectation that the temperature will deviate from that specific value.
The case for YES
- • A strong marine layer or late-season June gloom could keep coastal Los Angeles temperatures unseasonably cool, potentially landing exactly on 80°F.
- • The extreme heat earlier in the year might be followed by a rapid pattern shift (e.g., a trough) that brings below-normal temperatures, increasing the chance of a precise 80°F reading.
- • Historical variability in late July can produce a wide range of highs; 80°F is within the normal range, so a confluence of factors could still yield that exact value.
The case for NO
- • The probability of any exact integer temperature on a given day is inherently low, often well under 5% for sites like Los Angeles, making 98% No a reasonable reflection of that base rate.
- • The record-breaking March heatwave and ongoing ocean heat records (FOX Weather, Mar 22; Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) suggest a persistent warm pattern that will likely push the daily high above 80°F.
- • No recent headlines point to any unusual cooling event that would lower the high to exactly 80°F, so the default expectation is for a temperature either above or below that mark, with above more likely given the heat trend.
What to watch
- • The official temperature reading for July 25 from the National Weather Service, expected to be published on July 26, will resolve the contract: if the high is exactly 80°F, Yes odds will spike to 100%; otherwise they will drop to 0%.
- • Any unexpected revision or delay in the official report could cause short-term volatility, but the direction is deterministic once the verified high is released.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance