Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.
The market heavily discounts a high of exactly 78°F in Los Angeles on July 26, 2026, likely because the region's recent extreme heat waves and record-breaking ocean temperatures make a cooler, more typical summer day improbable.
📊 Base rate: Historical data for Los Angeles shows that the average daily high on July 26 is around 84°F, with a standard deviation of about 5°F, making a high of exactly 78°F roughly a 1-in-8 occurrence under normal climate conditions.
What's driving it
- • Historic March heatwaves shattered over 1,500 records across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22), signaling a persistent warm pattern that raises the baseline temperature for summer.
- • The ocean off California continues to break heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which typically suppresses coastal cooling and keeps LA's temperatures elevated.
- • LA County's new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) underscores official recognition of rising heat risks, reinforcing the expectation of above-normal temperatures.
The case for YES
- • A strong marine layer or June gloom pattern could keep coastal LA cooler than inland areas, potentially capping the high at 78°F.
- • If a rare trough of low pressure or persistent cloud cover arrives on July 26, it could suppress the high temperature below the recent elevated norm.
- • The exact temperature of 78°F is a narrow target; even a slight deviation from the forecasted high could land on that mark, especially if the day is overcast or foggy.
The case for NO
- • The region's recent extreme heat events, including a historic March heatwave with forecasts of 110°F (USA Today, Mar 17), indicate a strong warming trend that makes a relatively cool 78°F high unlikely.
- • Record-breaking ocean temperatures off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) reduce the cooling effect of the sea breeze, pushing LA's daily highs higher than historical averages.
- • The sheer number of temperature records shattered across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22) suggests that 2026 is an anomalously hot year, making a below-average high of 78°F improbable.
What to watch
- • Mid-July 2026 extended weather forecasts from NOAA or local NWS offices: if they predict a heatwave or above-normal temperatures for late July, the No side would strengthen; if they predict a cool spell, the Yes side would gain.
- • Any report of a strong El Niño or La Niña pattern by early July 2026: El Niño typically raises LA temperatures (favoring No), while La Niña could bring cooler conditions (favoring Yes).
- • Daily temperature readings in the week before July 26: if LA sees several days near or below 78°F, the Yes probability would rise; if consistently above 80°F, the No side would solidify.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance