Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_81
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market is overwhelmingly betting that Los Angeles will not reach 81°F on July 25, 2026, despite historical July highs averaging 84°F and a spring of record-breaking heatwaves. This extreme divergence suggests traders are either relying on a specific cool forecast or misinterpreting the contract's threshold.
📊 Base rate: Historically, Los Angeles' daily high temperature in late July exceeds 81°F on over 90% of days (NOAA climate normals).
What's driving it
- • The market's 98% No odds are driven by a lack of any recent July heatwave headlines, indicating traders are relying on long-range forecasts that predict a cool day (odds as of Jul 26).
- • Despite record-breaking March heatwaves (The Guardian, Mar 19) and ocean heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), the market has not moved toward Yes, suggesting traders view spring extremes as irrelevant to a specific summer day.
The case for YES
- • Historical base rate strongly favors Yes: LA's typical July high is well above 81°F, making a sub-81°F day unusual.
- • The region has experienced persistent warmth, including a historic March heatwave that shattered records (The Guardian, Mar 19) and record-warm ocean temperatures off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which could contribute to a hot July day.
- • The contract's threshold of 81°F is relatively low for LA in late July, so even a modestly warm day would trigger Yes.
The case for NO
- • The market's extreme confidence (98% No) implies a specific forecast or model output predicts a cooler day, possibly due to a marine layer or coastal eddy that often keeps downtown LA below 81°F in July.
- • Spring heatwaves, while dramatic, are not reliable predictors of summer temperatures; the March event was an anomaly driven by a stalled high-pressure system, not a long-term trend.
- • The contract may be for a location like LAX airport, which is cooler than inland areas and frequently stays below 81°F even in July.
What to watch
- • Release of NOAA's 8-14 day outlook around July 11-18: if it predicts above-normal temperatures for Southern California, Yes odds would likely rise.
- • Issuance of a heat advisory or excessive heat watch for Los Angeles County in the days before July 25: would strongly move odds toward Yes.
- • The observed high temperature on July 24, 2026: if it reaches or exceeds 81°F, it would increase confidence for a similar outcome the next day, pushing Yes higher.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance