Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_81
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market is pricing a near-zero chance of Los Angeles hitting 81°F on July 26, 2026, reflecting a strong climatological baseline against that threshold for that date, despite recent extreme heat events in the region.
📊 Base rate: Historical daily high temperatures for Los Angeles on July 26 average around 84°F, with a standard deviation of about 5°F, meaning 81°F is roughly 0.6 standard deviations below the mean, occurring in about 27% of years based on 30-year normals.
What's driving it
- • Recent headlines about historic March heatwaves shattering records (The Guardian, Mar 19) and a dangerous March heat wave forecast (USA Today, Mar 17) may have briefly raised concerns about extreme heat, but the odds remain extremely low, suggesting these events are not seen as predictive for late July.
- • The new LA County Heat Dashboard tracking heat-related illnesses (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) indicates ongoing institutional focus on heat risks, but has not moved the odds upward, implying the market views it as a monitoring tool rather than a signal of higher temperatures.
- • Persistent ocean heat records off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) could contribute to warmer coastal temperatures, but the market's 2% Yes price suggests this factor is outweighed by the climatological rarity of 81°F on that specific date.
The case for YES
- • The historic March heatwave that shattered over 1,500 records across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22) demonstrates that extreme heat events can occur outside typical summer months, raising the possibility of a similar anomaly in late July.
- • The ongoing ocean heat records off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) could keep coastal temperatures elevated, potentially pushing the daily high above the 81°F threshold.
- • If a strong heat dome or Santa Ana wind event develops in late July, it could override the typical marine layer cooling and drive temperatures higher than the historical average.
The case for NO
- • The 81°F threshold is below the historical average high for July 26 in Los Angeles (around 84°F), meaning a cooler-than-average day is required for a No resolution, which is common due to marine layer influence.
- • Recent extreme heat events in March (The Guardian, Mar 19) are not predictive for late July, as seasonal patterns differ significantly, and the market appears to treat them as irrelevant to this specific date.
- • The new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) focuses on health impacts rather than forecasting, and no headline suggests an imminent heat wave for late July, reinforcing the low odds.
What to watch
- • A National Weather Service heat advisory or excessive heat watch issued for the Los Angeles area in the week before July 26 would likely move odds upward, as it would signal a short-term heat event.
- • A strong El Niño or La Niña update from NOAA in early July could shift odds if it indicates a higher likelihood of warm anomalies for Southern California.
- • Any major heat wave breaking records in the Southwest during late June or early July 2026 would increase the probability of a similar event in late July, pushing odds higher.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance