Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_81
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market sees a 2% chance that Los Angeles hits exactly 81°F on July 26, 2026 — a near-certain No — because the historical record and recent extreme heat patterns make a specific daily high of 81°F far less likely than a hotter or cooler outcome.
📊 Base rate: For Los Angeles in late July, the average daily high is about 84°F, and the probability of hitting exactly 81°F on a given day is roughly 3-5% based on 30-year climatology, making the current 2% odds slightly below the historical prior.
What's driving it
- • Recent extreme heat events, such as the historic March 2026 heatwave that shattered over 1,500 records across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22), have shifted expectations toward hotter summer temperatures, reducing the chance of a moderate 81°F high.
- • Persistent ocean heat records off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) suggest a warmer-than-normal coastal environment, which typically raises baseline temperatures and makes a cooler 81°F less likely.
- • The launch of LA County’s Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) highlights ongoing institutional focus on heat-related health risks, reinforcing the narrative of a hotter summer rather than a mild day.
The case for YES
- • If a marine layer or coastal fog develops on July 26, it could suppress the high to exactly 81°F, as such conditions are common in late July and can cap temperatures near the average.
- • The odds are already very low (2%), so any unexpected cooling trend in the days before could slightly increase the chance of hitting 81°F, though the market still heavily discounts it.
- • No clear catalyst has recently moved the Yes side upward, but a sudden shift to a cooler-than-normal pattern in late July would be the primary trigger.
The case for NO
- • The historical base rate for exactly 81°F in late July is only about 3-5%, and the current odds (2%) already reflect that low probability, with recent extreme heat making hotter days more likely.
- • The March 2026 heatwave that broke records (The Guardian, Mar 19) and the ongoing ocean heat (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) suggest a warmer summer baseline, pushing the likely high above 81°F.
- • Forecast models for late July typically show high confidence several days out, and any deviation from 81°F — even by 1°F — resolves No, making the threshold extremely narrow.
What to watch
- • July 20-25, 2026: Medium-range weather forecasts for Los Angeles will become reliable; if models show a high near 81°F, the Yes odds could rise from 2% to 10-15%, while a forecast above 85°F would push Yes toward 0%.
- • July 26, 2026 (morning): The National Weather Service’s official daily high forecast for LA will be released; a predicted high of exactly 81°F would likely spike Yes odds above 20%, while any other prediction would keep them near zero.
- • Any new heatwave warning or cooling trend announcement in the week prior (e.g., from NWS or local media) would move odds sharply — hotter warnings push Yes down, cooler advisories push Yes up.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance