Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 6% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 6% right now.
The market heavily discounts a high of exactly 78°F in Los Angeles on July 26, 2026, reflecting that typical midsummer highs are much hotter, but recent extreme heat events and record ocean temperatures could shift the distribution of possible highs.
📊 Base rate: In Los Angeles, the average daily high on July 26 is around 84°F, and the historical probability of a high exactly at 78°F is very low, likely under 5%, based on decades of weather records.
What's driving it
- • Historic March heatwaves shattered records across the Southwest (The Guardian, Mar 19; USA Today, Mar 17), raising the baseline expectation for hotter-than-normal conditions in 2026.
- • The ocean off California continues to break heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which can moderate coastal temperatures but also increase humidity and shift weather patterns.
- • LA County’s new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) indicates heightened awareness and monitoring of heat events, but does not directly affect the temperature outcome.
- • No recent headlines specifically address the forecast for late July 2026, so the odds are primarily driven by climatological norms and the extreme heat events earlier in the year.
The case for YES
- • A strong marine layer or unusual cloud cover could keep temperatures suppressed, making a high of 78°F plausible if a persistent onshore flow develops.
- • If the extreme heat pattern from March breaks down and is replaced by a cooler-than-average summer, the odds of a mild day increase.
- • El Niño or La Niña conditions could shift the jet stream; a La Niña pattern often brings cooler coastal temperatures to Southern California.
The case for NO
- • Typical midsummer highs in Los Angeles are in the mid-80s, making 78°F about 6-8°F below average, which is an unusually cool outlier.
- • The historic March heatwave (The Guardian, Mar 19) and record ocean temperatures (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) suggest a warmer baseline for 2026, reducing the chance of a below-average high.
- • Over 1,500 records were shattered across the Southwest in March (FOX Weather, Mar 22), indicating a persistent heat trend that may carry into summer.
What to watch
- • July 2026 monthly outlook from NOAA (early July): if it predicts above-average temperatures, odds for Yes would drop further; if below-average, odds could rise.
- • Any mid-July heatwave or cool spell in Southern California (around Jul 20-25): a strong cool event would increase Yes probability, while a heatwave would crush it.
- • Release of ensemble weather model forecasts for July 26 (around Jul 20-24): specific short-range forecasts would sharply move the odds toward the predicted high.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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Yes ≈ 26% chance