Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_89
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market is pricing a near-zero chance of Los Angeles hitting 89°F on July 26, 2026, reflecting the city's typical summer climate rather than any recent extreme heat events, which occurred in March and are not predictive of late July conditions.
📊 Base rate: Los Angeles' average daily high on July 26 is about 84°F, with historical records showing that temperatures reach 89°F or higher on that date roughly 5-10% of the time, making the current 2% odds slightly below the historical prior.
What's driving it
- • The market odds have remained at 2% since listing, with no recent headlines specifically addressing July 26 temperatures, indicating that the odds are driven by climatological norms rather than current events.
- • The March 2026 heatwave, which shattered records (The Guardian, Mar 19), is too early in the year to influence late July forecasts, and no subsequent headlines have suggested a similar event for July.
- • The LA County Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) and persistent ocean heat records off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) highlight long-term warming trends but do not directly alter the probability for a single day in July.
- • The 98% No odds reflect the market's reliance on historical weather patterns, where 89°F is above the typical July 26 high, and no near-term forecast or weather alert has shifted expectations.
The case for YES
- • If a late-July heatwave develops, similar to the historic March event (The Guardian, Mar 19), it could push temperatures above 89°F, especially given the ongoing ocean heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) that may fuel coastal warming.
- • The record-shattering March heatwave (USA Today, Mar 17) demonstrates that extreme temperature anomalies are possible in Los Angeles, and a similar pattern could recur in July due to persistent climate trends.
- • The new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) indicates heightened awareness and monitoring of heat risks, which could correlate with actual high-temperature events later in the summer.
The case for NO
- • Los Angeles' July 26 climatological average high is around 84°F, making 89°F a rare occurrence that requires a specific heatwave, and no such event is currently forecast or indicated by recent headlines.
- • The March heatwave (The Guardian, Mar 19) was an unprecedented spring event, but summer heatwaves in Los Angeles are typically less extreme, and the city's coastal location moderates temperatures, reducing the likelihood of hitting 89°F.
- • The persistent ocean heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) could actually lead to cooler coastal temperatures due to marine layer effects, which often keep Los Angeles cooler than inland areas during summer.
What to watch
- • A National Weather Service heat advisory or excessive heat watch issued for the Los Angeles area in the week before July 26 would likely increase Yes odds significantly.
- • A medium-range forecast (7-10 days out) from a major weather model showing a high-pressure ridge over Southern California around July 26 would push odds toward Yes.
- • If a major wildfire or other climate event disrupts typical weather patterns in late July, it could alter temperature expectations, though the direction would depend on the specific impact.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance