Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 9% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 9% right now.
The market heavily favors a No resolution because July 25 in Los Angeles has a strong climatological tendency to exceed 78°F, and the recent headlines about extreme heat in the region underscore that high-temperature events are becoming more frequent and intense, making a sub-78°F high on that date an outlier.
📊 Base rate: Based on NOAA climate normals for Los Angeles (downtown), the average daily high on July 25 is approximately 84°F, and historical data from 1981-2010 shows that the high exceeds 78°F on roughly 85-90% of July days, so the current 9% Yes odds are far below the historical base rate.
What's driving it
- • The historic March 2026 heatwave in the US West shattered records and raised awareness of persistent high-temperature patterns (The Guardian, Mar 19; USA Today, Mar 17).
- • The ocean off California continues to break heat records, suggesting a warm marine layer that could contribute to above-normal coastal temperatures (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16).
- • Over 1,500 records were shattered across the Southwest in March 2026, indicating a broader trend of extreme heat that may extend into summer (FOX Weather, Mar 22).
- • LA County’s new Heat Dashboard, launched in May 2026, signals increased institutional focus on heat-related health impacts, but does not directly alter temperature odds (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28).
The case for YES
- • A strong marine layer or June Gloom pattern could persist into late July, keeping coastal Los Angeles below 78°F, as cool ocean currents sometimes suppress daytime highs.
- • If a rare summer storm or deep trough moves into Southern California on July 25, it could bring cloud cover and cooler temperatures, making a sub-78°F high possible.
- • The current 9% odds imply the market sees a small but non-zero chance of an unusually cool day, which could occur if a strong cold front or persistent low clouds materialize.
The case for NO
- • Climatologically, Los Angeles in late July almost always exceeds 78°F, with the average high near 84°F, making a sub-78°F day a significant deviation from the norm.
- • The recent extreme heat events in the region, including the March 2026 heatwave and ongoing ocean heat records, suggest a warming trend that makes cooler days less likely (The Guardian, Mar 19; Los Angeles Times, Apr 16).
- • No specific forecast for July 25, 2026, is available yet, but the seasonal outlook for summer 2026 likely favors above-normal temperatures given the persistent warm conditions in the Pacific and Southwest.
What to watch
- • Mid-July 2026: Release of the 8-14 day temperature outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center for the week of July 25; if it forecasts above-normal temperatures for Los Angeles, the No odds would likely rise further.
- • Late June 2026: Any new heatwave or record-breaking temperature event in Southern California would reinforce the No case by signaling continued extreme heat patterns.
- • Early July 2026: A shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or a strong El Niño/La Niña update could alter long-range temperature forecasts; a cooling signal (e.g., La Niña strengthening) might modestly boost Yes odds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance