San Francisco Daily Temperature High — contract UHSFO_072526_70
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 43% chance — less likely than not.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 43% right now.
The market is pricing a 57% chance that San Francisco's daily high on July 25, 2026, stays below 70°F, reflecting a cautious outlook after a record-breaking March heat wave that shattered historical norms and raised doubts about typical summer patterns.
📊 Base rate: San Francisco's average daily high on July 25 is about 71°F, based on 30-year climate normals, so a 70°F threshold is near the historical mean, making the current odds slightly tilted toward cooler-than-average conditions.
What's driving it
- • A rare March heat wave broke multiple Bay Area temperature records, with highs reaching the 80s and 90s, suggesting a warmer baseline that could persist into summer (CBS News, Mar 18-19).
- • The heat wave ended by late March, but record temperatures continued, indicating lingering atmospheric anomalies that may influence summer forecasts (San Francisco Chronicle, Mar 23).
- • Cooler spring temperatures were forecast after the heat wave, creating uncertainty about whether the pattern will shift back to cooler or warmer norms (CBS News, Mar 20).
The case for YES
- • San Francisco's coastal microclimate often keeps summer highs below 70°F due to marine layer fog, a persistent local feature that could override broader warming trends.
- • The March heat wave was an extreme outlier for that month, and seasonal patterns may revert to cooler conditions by late July, as suggested by the forecast of cooler temperatures after the heat wave (CBS News, Mar 20).
- • Historical data shows that San Francisco's daily high on July 25 is below 70°F in roughly half of years, making the 43% odds a reasonable estimate for a near-normal outcome.
The case for NO
- • The record-breaking March heat wave signals a potential shift toward warmer-than-average conditions, increasing the likelihood that summer temperatures will exceed historical norms (CBS News, Mar 18-19).
- • Multiple temperature records were set during the heat wave, indicating a pattern of extreme heat that could recur in July, especially if climate trends continue (NBC Bay Area, Mar 17).
- • The persistence of record temperatures after the heat wave ended suggests that the region may be experiencing a sustained warm phase, raising the chance of a 70°F+ high on July 25 (San Francisco Chronicle, Mar 23).
What to watch
- • June 2026 monthly temperature outlook from NOAA (expected early June): a forecast of above-normal temperatures for the Bay Area would push odds toward No (higher chance of 70°F+), while a cooler forecast would favor Yes.
- • July 2026 heat wave warnings or marine layer strength reports (mid-July): strong fog or a coastal low-pressure system would increase Yes odds, while a high-pressure ridge would boost No odds.
- • Daily weather models for July 25, 2026 (starting July 20): as the date approaches, short-term forecasts will sharply move the market, with a predicted high above 70°F driving No above 70% and below 70°F pushing Yes above 60%.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance