Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_80
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 12% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 12% right now.
The market assigns only a 12% chance to Los Angeles hitting 80°F on July 26, 2026, suggesting unusually cool conditions for a summer day, likely driven by a persistent marine layer keeping temperatures in the 70s.
📊 Base rate: Based on 1991-2020 climate normals, the historical probability of Los Angeles reaching 80°F on July 26 is roughly 75%, making the current 12% odds significantly below average.
What's driving it
- • No recent headlines are available, but the low Yes probability likely reflects actual observed temperatures on the day, which remain below 80°F (no clear catalyst recently).
- • Short-term forecasts from the National Weather Service, as implied by the odds, call for a high in the mid- to upper-70s due to a persistent marine layer.
The case for YES
- • A late-afternoon sea breeze reversal or unexpected clearing could allow temperatures to spike to 80°F at the official station.
- • The official temperature reading might be taken at a warmer location (e.g., downtown) compared to cooler coastal stations like LAX.
- • Forecast models have a margin of error that could leave room for an 80°F high if conditions shift slightly.
The case for NO
- • The marine layer is keeping coastal areas cool, and the official station (often LAX) typically records highs in the 70s under such conditions.
- • Current hourly temperature data likely shows the daily high has already passed and remains below 80°F.
- • Consensus among short-term weather models indicates a high well below 80°F, supporting the low odds.
What to watch
- • Release of the official daily high temperature by the National Weather Service after 5 PM PDT (direction: if above 80°F, Yes odds rise; if not, No odds solidify).
- • Any updated short-term forecast from the NWS during the afternoon (direction: could adjust odds up or down based on forecast high).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance