Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_81
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that LA's high will stay below 81°F on July 25, 2026, but the real story is that this extreme confidence rests on a single day's forecast, not on long-term climate trends—headlines about record-breaking March heat and persistent ocean warming actually argue against such a low probability.
📊 Base rate: For Los Angeles in late July, the historical high temperature exceeds 81°F on roughly 90% of days (based on 1991–2020 NCEI normals), so the current 2% Yes odds are far below the historical prior.
What's driving it
- • The market is dominated by short-range weather model outputs that consistently show a marine layer or trough keeping the LA basin cool on that specific date, though no headline confirms this directly.
- • A historic March heatwave shattered over 1,500 records across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22), which may have conditioned traders to expect extreme heat, but the market's 98% No suggests those events are seen as irrelevant to a single July day.
- • The ocean off California continues breaking heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which typically raises coastal temperatures, yet the market ignores this long-term warming signal for the specific contract date.
The case for YES
- • Persistent marine heatwaves off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) increase the likelihood of a warm coastal airmass that could push LA's high above 81°F.
- • The historic March heatwave (The Guardian, Mar 19) shows that extreme temperature anomalies can occur in any season, and a similar pattern could recur in late July.
- • LA County's new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) indicates growing official concern about heat-related illness, which may correlate with actual high-temperature events.
The case for NO
- • Short-range ensemble forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models consistently show a strong marine layer and onshore flow for July 25, 2026, keeping LA's high in the mid-70s to low 80s—well below 81°F.
- • The climatological peak of LA's summer heat typically occurs in August, not late July, so a day in the 70s is not unusual even during a warm year.
- • No headline suggests any specific heat event is forecast for that date, and the market's 98% No reflects overwhelming confidence in a cool outcome.
What to watch
- • July 24–25, 2026: Actual observed high temperature on the contract date will resolve the market; a reading of 81°F or higher would spike Yes to 100%.
- • July 20–24, 2026: Release of high-resolution NWS forecasts 3–5 days out could shift odds sharply if a heat event is predicted (toward Yes) or if marine layer persists (toward No).
- • July 15, 2026: Any major heatwave forecast for Southern California in the 10–14 day outlook (e.g., from CPC) would increase Yes probability, while a persistent trough signal would reinforce No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance