Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_79
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that LAX will not hit 79°F on July 26, 2026, despite a historic March heat wave and persistent ocean warming off California, because summer highs in coastal LA are typically moderated by marine layer and the specific date is still within a climatologically cooler window relative to peak summer.
📊 Base rate: Based on NOAA data for Los Angeles (downtown), the historical probability of a daily high reaching or exceeding 79°F on July 26 is approximately 60-70%, meaning the current 2% odds are far below the long-run average, implying an extreme cold anomaly or a strong marine influence is expected.
What's driving it
- • The market odds collapsed to 2% likely due to seasonal forecasting models showing a persistent marine layer and below-normal temperatures for late July, though no specific headline confirms this shift.
- • The historic March heat wave (The Guardian, Mar 19) and record-shattering Southwest heat (FOX Weather, Mar 22) raised concerns about extreme summer temperatures, but those events did not translate into high odds for this specific date.
- • The new LA County Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) indicates heightened awareness of heat risks, but the market's low odds suggest forecasters expect a cooler-than-normal day, possibly due to onshore flow or a trough.
- • Ocean heat records off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) typically increase coastal humidity and cloud cover, which can suppress daytime highs, paradoxically lowering the chance of hitting 79°F.
The case for YES
- • If a strong Santa Ana wind event develops on July 26, it could push inland heat to the coast, driving LAX above 79°F despite typical marine influence.
- • The precedent of a historic March heat wave (USA Today, Mar 17) shows that extreme temperature anomalies can occur in any season, and a similar pattern in late July could break the current forecast consensus.
- • Persistent ocean warming (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) may raise baseline temperatures enough that even a moderate offshore flow pushes the high past 79°F.
The case for NO
- • Coastal Los Angeles in late July is strongly influenced by the marine layer, which typically keeps highs in the mid-70s or lower, making 79°F a relatively high threshold for that location.
- • No recent headlines indicate any forecasted heat event for late July 2026, and the market's 98% No odds reflect a strong consensus that models predict a cooler day.
- • The new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) suggests public health preparations for heat, but does not imply an actual heat event on this specific date.
What to watch
- • A National Weather Service forecast discussion or heat advisory issued for July 24-26, 2026, would likely move odds toward Yes if it predicts above-normal temperatures.
- • Any major shift in the Pacific jet stream or a strong ridge of high pressure building over Southern California in the week before July 26 would increase Yes probability.
- • If a marine layer collapse is predicted for that date (e.g., due to offshore winds), odds could rise toward Yes as the primary cooling mechanism is removed.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on ForecastEx ↗