Atlanta Daily Temperature High — contract UHATL_072526_87
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that Atlanta's high temperature on July 26, 2026, will reach at least 87°F, reflecting a strong climatological baseline for midsummer heat in the region, but the extreme odds leave little room for a cool outlier like a stalled front or heavy rain.
📊 Base rate: Atlanta's average daily high on July 26 is around 89°F, and the city has historically reached 87°F or higher on roughly 80-90% of days in late July, based on NOAA climate normals.
What's driving it
- • The market's 98% odds reflect the strong seasonal pattern of midsummer heat in Atlanta, as seen in recent forecasts for dry air and sunny skies (CBS News, Jun 3) and unseasonable 80s with daily rain chances (FOX 5, Mar 31).
- • Record-breaking heat events earlier in 2026, such as February heat breaking Georgia climate records (11Alive, Feb 20) and a 135-year-old record broken in Atlanta (11Alive, Feb 19), may have reinforced expectations for above-normal temperatures throughout the year.
- • No clear catalyst from recent headlines directly explains the extreme 98% odds, as the most recent forecast (FOX 5, Jun 28) is a month before the contract date and does not mention July 26 specifically.
The case for YES
- • Atlanta's average high on July 26 is 89°F, well above the 87°F threshold, making a temperature at or above that mark climatologically routine.
- • The region has experienced persistent warmth in 2026, including record-breaking heat in February (11Alive, Feb 20) and unseasonable 80s in March (FOX 5, Mar 31), suggesting a warm bias that could carry into summer.
- • Forecasts for dry air and sunny skies in early June (CBS News, Jun 3) indicate typical summer weather patterns that favor high temperatures.
The case for NO
- • A cold front or prolonged rain event on July 26 could keep the high below 87°F, as summer thunderstorms occasionally suppress daytime temperatures in Atlanta.
- • The 2% odds imply a rare but possible cool outlier, such as a stalled weather system or unseasonable cloud cover, which has occurred in some past Julys.
- • The market's near-100% odds may overestimate certainty, as weather forecasts beyond a week are inherently uncertain and the contract date is still a month away from the latest headline (FOX 5, Jun 28).
What to watch
- • A National Weather Service 8-14 day outlook for late July, if issued around mid-July 2026, showing above-normal temperature probabilities would reinforce the Yes case.
- • A specific forecast for July 26 from a major weather model (e.g., GFS or ECMWF) about 5-7 days out, if predicting a high below 87°F, could shift odds toward No.
- • Any reports of a developing heatwave or cool front in the Southeast in the week before July 26 would move odds, with heatwave pushing Yes and cool front pushing No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance