Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 9% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 9% right now.
The market heavily discounts a high of exactly 78°F in Los Angeles on July 26, 2026, reflecting that a historic March heatwave and persistently warm coastal ocean temperatures have shifted the baseline climate, making a cooler 78°F less likely than the historical norm would suggest.
📊 Base rate: Historical data for downtown Los Angeles shows that the average daily high on July 26 is about 84°F, with readings at or below 78°F occurring in roughly 15-20% of years, meaning the current 9% odds are slightly below that historical prior.
What's driving it
- • A historic March heatwave shattered over 1,500 records across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22), signaling an unusually warm start to the year that raises the baseline for summer temperatures.
- • The ocean off California has repeatedly broken heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which tends to suppress coastal cooling and keep Los Angeles overnight lows and daytime highs elevated.
- • LA County’s new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) institutionalizes tracking of heat-related illness, reflecting official recognition of a warming trend that could make cooler days rarer.
The case for YES
- • The March heatwave was described as 'unprecedented' (NYT, Mar 16) and 'historic' (The Guardian, Mar 19), but such extreme early-season heat can sometimes precede a pattern shift or marine layer intrusion that brings a cooler-than-normal day in late July.
- • A high of exactly 78°F is a specific, narrow target; even a moderately warm day could hit that mark if a morning marine layer delays warming, as often happens in coastal Los Angeles.
- • The 9% odds imply a roughly 1-in-11 chance, which is not far from the historical frequency of such a low high, so a return to a more typical summer pattern after the early heat could produce this outcome.
The case for NO
- • The historic March heatwave and record-shattering Southwest temperatures (USA Today, Mar 17) suggest a persistent warm anomaly that makes a below-average high of 78°F less likely.
- • Persistent ocean heat records off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) reduce the likelihood of a strong marine layer, which is the main mechanism for cooling Los Angeles to 78°F in late July.
- • Over 1,500 records were shattered in the Southwest during the March heatwave (FOX Weather, Mar 22), indicating a regional warming trend that likely carries into summer and raises the temperature floor.
What to watch
- • July 2026 monthly outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (typically released in early July): a forecast for above-normal temperatures would push odds lower for YES; a forecast for near-normal or below-normal would push odds higher.
- • Any major heatwave or record-breaking temperature event in Southern California during the two weeks before July 26 would further lower YES odds, while a strong marine layer event or cooler-than-normal week would raise them.
- • Daily weather model runs starting around July 20 for the Los Angeles area: ensemble forecasts showing a high near or below 78°F would spike YES odds; forecasts showing 85°F+ would crush them.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance