Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 9% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 9% right now.
The market heavily discounts a high of exactly 78°F in Los Angeles on July 26, 2026, because the region's recent extreme heat waves and record-breaking ocean temperatures make a cooler, below-normal day unlikely, but the specific target is so close to the historical average that a mild day could still hit it.
📊 Base rate: The historical average daily high in Los Angeles on July 26 is about 84°F, so a high of exactly 78°F is roughly 6°F below normal, occurring in only about 5-10% of years based on recent climate data.
What's driving it
- • The historic March 2026 heatwave shattered over 1,500 records across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22), signaling a persistently hot pattern that reduces the chance of a cool outlier like 78°F.
- • The ocean off California continues to break heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which typically suppresses marine-layer cooling and keeps coastal temperatures elevated into summer.
- • LA County’s new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) reflects institutional preparation for more high-heat events, reinforcing the expectation of above-normal temperatures.
- • No clear recent catalyst has shifted the odds from their current 9% level; the market appears anchored by the broader heat-wave narrative from spring 2026.
The case for YES
- • A strong marine layer or June Gloom pattern could persist into late July, keeping coastal Los Angeles unusually cool and within a few degrees of 78°F.
- • The exact target of 78°F is close to the historical average low for that date, so a day with overcast skies and onshore flow could easily produce that reading.
- • If a tropical storm or unusual cloud cover moves in, it could suppress the high temperature well below the seasonal norm, making 78°F a plausible peak.
The case for NO
- • The historic March heatwave and ongoing ocean heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) suggest a warm baseline that makes a below-normal high of 78°F an outlier.
- • July 26 is climatologically one of the hottest weeks of the year in Los Angeles, with typical highs near 84°F, so reaching only 78°F requires a significant cooling anomaly.
- • The pattern of record-shattering heat across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22) indicates that extreme heat events are more frequent, reducing the probability of a mild day.
What to watch
- • July 2026 monthly temperature outlook from NOAA (expected early July): a forecast for above-normal temperatures would push odds lower for YES; a forecast for near-normal or below-normal would increase YES odds.
- • Any mid-July heatwave or Santa Ana wind event forecast for Southern California: a predicted hot spell would lower YES odds further; a predicted cool spell would raise them.
- • Daily weather model runs for July 26 starting around July 20: as the forecast sharpens, a predicted high near 78°F would spike YES odds, while a prediction of 82°F or higher would drop them near zero.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on ForecastEx ↗Related markets
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
The market sees advanced embryo selection as still niche and ethically fraught, but recent coverage of genetic optimization startups and IVF's expanding role in family planning suggests the technology is gaining momentum, making the 100,000-conception threshold plausible if regulatory and adoption barriers fall.
Yes ≈ 26% chance