Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_96
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 5% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 5% right now.
The market heavily discounts a 96°F high in Jacksonville on July 26, 2026, despite an extreme heat event forecast just two days prior, because the contract's specific threshold is far above typical July highs and a recent cold snap suggests volatility that could suppress a record-level reading.
📊 Base rate: OMIT
What's driving it
- • On July 24, 2026, the FL Times-Union reported extreme heat and storms ahead for Jacksonville this weekend, which could lift the high toward the 96°F threshold (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • However, the sustained 'normal' temps reported in mid-May (Daytona Beach News-Journal, May 13) and the extreme record-high plunge in late March (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27) both show that Jacksonville's daily highs often fall short of extreme thresholds outside brief heat waves.
- • The current 5% Yes odds reflect market skepticism that the forecasted heat wave will push the daily high to exactly 96°F, which is well above Jacksonville's typical July average high.
The case for YES
- • The July 24 forecast explicitly warns of 'extreme heat' for this weekend, directly covering July 26, making a 96°F high plausible as a peak of that event (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • In early March 2026, Florida flirted with record highs (Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9), showing the region is capable of hitting extreme temperatures in a given year.
- • Jacksonville's high temperatures reached the 80s in February (FL Times-Union, Feb 19), indicating a warm baseline that could climb to 96°F under a strong heat ridge.
The case for NO
- • The 96°F threshold is a highly specific benchmark; without a historic example of that exact level being reached on this date (no clear catalyst provided), the default probability is very low.
- • The late-March plunge from record highs to near-freezing (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27) demonstrates that Jacksonville's heat waves are often interrupted by cold fronts or storms, capping daily highs.
- • Even with extreme heat forecast on July 24, the market at 5% implies traders see the intensity as insufficient to reach 96°F, possibly due to storm or cloud cover limiting the peak (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
What to watch
- • July 25, 2026 — The actual observed high on Friday July 25 will strongly inform whether July 26 can reach 96°F; a reading near 90°F or below would decrease Yes odds, while a reading above 95°F would increase them.
- • July 26, 2026 — Actual temperature reports from the Jacksonville weather station at noon or afternoon will resolve the contract; early readings far below 96°F would cement No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on ForecastEx ↗Related markets
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
The market sees advanced embryo selection as still niche and ethically fraught, but recent coverage of genetic optimization startups and IVF's expanding role in family planning suggests the technology is gaining momentum, making the 100,000-conception threshold plausible if regulatory and adoption barriers fall.
Yes ≈ 26% chance