Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_96
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 5% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 5% right now.
Despite a weekend heat wave warning, the market heavily discounts a 96°F high in Jacksonville, reflecting that the forecast high likely falls short of that threshold and that such extreme temperatures are rare even in summer.
📊 Base rate: According to NOAA climate normals, the average daily high in Jacksonville on July 25 is about 91°F, and temperatures reaching 96°F or higher occur in roughly 5% of years, consistent with the current odds.
What's driving it
- • The July 24 headline about extreme heat and storms suggests high temperatures but also potential cloud cover or rainfall that could cap the high (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • The market's 5% odds align with the historical rarity of 96°F in Jacksonville, as implied by the 'normal temps' narrative in May (Daytona Beach News-Journal, May 13).
- • Earlier volatility, including a March swing from record highs to a 'freezer,' reinforces the unpredictability of extreme heat events (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27).
The case for YES
- • The July 24 forecast explicitly warns of 'extreme heat,' which could push temperatures toward record highs if storms clear early.
- • Florida's March flirtation with record highs shows that the region can surpass 96°F even in spring (Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9).
- • Swings documented in February (80s highs) demonstrate that the area can achieve high temperatures well above average when conditions align (FL Times-Union, Feb 19).
The case for NO
- • The July 24 forecast includes storms, which typically limit daytime heating and reduce the chance of reaching 96°F.
- • Historical base rates show that Jacksonville's July 25 high is rarely above 96°F, with the average high near 91°F, making the 5% odds appropriate.
- • The May narrative of 'normal' temperatures suggests that extreme heat is not a persistent pattern, lowering the likelihood of a record-breaking day (Daytona Beach News-Journal, May 13).
What to watch
- • Official National Weather Service high-temperature report for July 25 (to be released late July 25 or early July 26) — likely to resolve the market to 0% or 100%.
- • Any updated short-term forecast on July 25 morning that revises the predicted high up or down — could increase or decrease the odds.
- • Observed midday temperatures on July 25 that signal whether the afternoon heating is on track to reach 96°F — a rising trend would push Yes odds higher, a flat trend would reinforce No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance