Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072626_77
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 78% chance — likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 78% right now.
The high probability (78%) that LA will hit 77°F on July 26 reflects the region's spring heatwave and ocean heat records, but the actual odds are vulnerable to a classic marine-layer cooling event that can abruptly drop downtown highs below that threshold.
What's driving it
- • Spring 2026 shattered over 1,500 heat records across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22), setting a pattern of above-normal temperatures that market participants expect to persist into summer.
- • Record ocean temperatures off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) typically raise coastal air temperatures, supporting the YES case.
- • The absence of any cooling forecast or notable cold-snap headline since the spring heatwave has kept the YES side dominant.
The case for YES
- • 77°F is well below downtown Los Angeles' average July high of roughly 83°F, making it a low bar that historical climate data suggests is exceeded on most days.
- • The March heatwave was described as 'unprecedented' (NYT, Mar 16) and continued into April, implying a strong seasonal thermal inertia that favors continued warmth.
- • Ocean heat off California has been breaking records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), and warm ocean surface temperatures tend to suppress the marine layer that could otherwise keep the coast cool.
The case for NO
- • A persistent marine layer or 'June gloom' pattern can push through July, keeping downtown Los Angeles well below 77°F even in a generally hot season.
- • The record March heatwave does not guarantee a specific July day; day-to-day variability from a passing trough or onshore flow can produce a cooler outlier.
- • No official forecast for July 26 has been cited in the provided headlines, leaving uncertainty that the market may be pricing too confidently.
What to watch
- • Morning temperature readings and the National Weather Service's 7 AM forecast on July 26 could rapidly move odds if a strong marine layer is predicted (direction: NO if cool, YES if warm).
- • Any late-breaking advisory about a heatwave or cooling trend in the days just before July 26 would shift probabilities (direction: YES if heat advisory, NO if cooling advisory).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance