Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_95
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that Jacksonville hits 95°F on July 26, 2026, driven by an extreme heat event forecast just two days prior, but the odds may be overconfident given the region's volatile spring-to-summer temperature swings documented earlier in the year.
📊 Base rate: Jacksonville's daily high reaches or exceeds 95°F on July 26 roughly 15-20% of the time based on historical NOAA data for the date, making the current 98% odds extremely high relative to the climatological prior.
What's driving it
- • A July 24 headline from the FL Times-Union warns of 'extreme heat, storms ahead for Jacksonville this weekend,' directly covering the contract date and strongly supporting a Yes resolution (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • The odds likely surged after that forecast, as earlier March and May headlines described 'normal' temps and record highs plummeting, showing no persistent heat wave until this late-July event (Daytona Beach News-Journal, May 13; Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27).
- • No clear catalyst explains the 98% level beyond that single forecast; the market may be overweighting one short-term prediction without accounting for Jacksonville's documented weather volatility, such as February's 80°F highs followed by 30°F lows (FL Times-Union, Feb 19).
The case for YES
- • The July 24 forecast explicitly warns of extreme heat for the weekend of July 25-26, making a 95°F high the most likely outcome based on the latest meteorological data (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • Jacksonville has already flirted with record highs in March, with temps 'hot enough' to approach records, showing the region can reach extreme levels early in the year (Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9).
- • The forecast is only two days before the contract date, giving it high predictive accuracy compared to longer-range outlooks.
The case for NO
- • Jacksonville's weather has shown extreme swings this year, including a March 'frying pan into the freezer' drop from record highs, meaning a sudden cold front or storm could cap temperatures below 95°F (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27).
- • The July 24 headline also mentions 'storms ahead,' which could bring cloud cover or rain that suppresses the daily high temperature below the forecast (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • Historical base rates for July 26 in Jacksonville show 95°F is a rare event, occurring only about 15-20% of the time, so the 98% odds may be pricing in a single forecast that could bust.
What to watch
- • July 26, 2026 (contract date): Actual temperature reading from Jacksonville airport will resolve the market; if the high is below 95°F, odds will collapse to 0% (direction: No).
- • July 25-26, 2026: Any updated National Weather Service forecast or advisory downgrading the heat or adding rain chances would push odds down (direction: No).
- • July 26, 2026 morning: Early temperature readings or model updates showing a slower warm-up could reduce confidence in hitting 95°F (direction: No).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance