Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_79
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that LA's high on July 25, 2026, will exceed 79°F, reflecting a strong climatological baseline and recent extreme heat events, but the 3% 'Yes' odds suggest a tiny chance of an unusually cool day, possibly tied to marine layer or monsoon influences.
📊 Base rate: In Los Angeles, the average daily high on July 25 is around 84°F, and daily highs below 79°F occur less than 10% of the time based on 30-year climate normals, making the current 3% 'Yes' odds slightly lower than the historical frequency.
What's driving it
- • The historic March 2026 heatwave shattered records across the Southwest (The Guardian, Mar 19; USA Today, Mar 17), reinforcing a pattern of extreme heat that may persist into summer.
- • Record-breaking ocean temperatures off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) can amplify coastal heatwaves, reducing the likelihood of a cool day below 79°F.
- • LA County's new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) highlights growing institutional focus on high-temperature impacts, indirectly underscoring the expectation of hot conditions.
- • No recent headlines specifically point to a cool anomaly or a strong marine layer that would push the high below 79°F, leaving the odds anchored by climatology and recent heat.
- • yes
The case for YES
- • A strong marine layer or 'June gloom' pattern could persist into late July, keeping coastal LA below 79°F, as has occurred in some past years.
- • A rare monsoon trough or tropical moisture could bring cloud cover and cooler temperatures, temporarily suppressing the high.
- • The 3% odds imply a small but non-zero chance of an anomalous cool day, consistent with historical outliers in the climate record.
- • no
The case for NO
- • Climatologically, LA's typical July 25 high is near 84°F, making 79°F a low bar that is exceeded on roughly 90% of days.
- • The extreme heat events in March 2026 (FOX Weather, Mar 22) and ongoing ocean heat (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) suggest a warmer-than-average summer pattern.
- • No forecast or headline indicates a specific cooling event for late July, and the market's 97% 'No' odds reflect strong confidence in exceeding 79°F.
- • catalysts
What to watch
- • Late July 2026 medium-range weather forecasts (e.g., NOAA 8-14 day outlook) around July 20-24 would shift odds: a predicted heatwave would push 'No' higher, while a predicted cool anomaly would increase 'Yes' odds.
- • Any report of a strong marine layer or El Niño/La Niña transition affecting Southern California in late July could move the market toward 'Yes' if it suggests cooler conditions.
- • A major wildfire or heat advisory issued for LA County in the days before July 25 would reinforce 'No' by signaling extreme heat.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance