Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.
Despite extreme heat waves earlier in 2026, this market prices a 97% chance that Los Angeles failed to reach 78°F on July 25 — a stark reversal from the typical July climatology, likely reflecting an unusually cool marine-layer day or a resolved outcome.
📊 Base rate: Historically, Los Angeles sees a daily high of at least 78°F on about 90% of July days (based on 1991–2020 NCEI normals for downtown LA), so the current 3% Yes odds are far below the seasonal baseline.
What's driving it
- • No recent headline directly addresses the July 25 temperature; the last relevant weather news (The Guardian, Mar 19) describes a historic March heat wave that would normally imply a warmer summer, not a cooler one.
- • The ocean off California continues to break heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which typically raises coastal temperatures, but the market heavily favors No — indicating a disconnect or a specific cold event on July 25.
The case for YES
- • If a late-July heat dome or Santa Ana wind event materializes, it could push the high above 78°F, as seen in the March heat wave that shattered records (USA Today, Mar 17).
- • Persistent marine-layer clouds that often keep LA cool in June can break by late July, allowing temperatures to climb toward normal July highs (85°F+).
The case for NO
- • A strong marine layer or an unusually deep trough could keep the high below 78°F, as sometimes occurs during 'June gloom' extending into July, though no recent headlines document such an event on July 25.
- • The market's 97% No odds suggest that either the official reading has already come in below 78°F (since the event date is past) or forecasters are certain of a sub-78°F outcome based on up-to-date models not captured in the spring headlines.
What to watch
- • Official NWS Los Angeles temperature report for July 25, 2026 (expected within 24 hours of the event date) — if released before market settlement, it will resolve the contract; direction depends on actual reading.
- • Any late-breaking weather advisory or forecast for July 25 (e.g., NWS discussion) would move odds if it suggests a sudden heat surge or cool push.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on ForecastEx ↗Related markets
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
The market sees advanced embryo selection as still niche and ethically fraught, but recent coverage of genetic optimization startups and IVF's expanding role in family planning suggests the technology is gaining momentum, making the 100,000-conception threshold plausible if regulatory and adoption barriers fall.
Yes ≈ 26% chance