Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.
The market is heavily betting against a daily high of exactly 78°F in Los Angeles on July 25, 2026, reflecting the extreme heat trend that has shattered records in the region this year, making a mild 78°F reading highly unlikely.
📊 Base rate: In Los Angeles, the average daily high on July 25 is around 84°F, and the probability of a high exactly 78°F is very low (typically below 5%) based on historical climate data.
What's driving it
- • Historic March heatwaves shattered over 1,500 records across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22), indicating a persistent hot pattern that reduces the chance of a mild 78°F day.
- • The ocean off California continues breaking heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which tends to keep coastal temperatures warmer than average, pushing daily highs above 78°F.
- • LA County’s new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) underscores official recognition of rising heat risks, reinforcing expectations of above-normal temperatures.
The case for YES
- • A strong marine layer or June gloom pattern could bring persistent low clouds and fog, keeping the high temperature below 80°F and possibly at exactly 78°F.
- • If a rare cold trough dips into Southern California on that specific day, it could suppress temperatures well below the seasonal average, making 78°F plausible.
- • The market odds at 3% suggest the event is already priced as a long shot, so any unexpected cooling trend could cause a sharp upward move.
The case for NO
- • The historic March heatwave (The Guardian, Mar 19) and record-breaking temperatures (USA Today, Mar 17) indicate a strong warming trend that makes a mild 78°F high on a late July day very unlikely.
- • Persistent ocean heat records off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) provide a warm baseline that typically elevates coastal temperatures, pushing daily highs above 80°F.
- • Climatologically, July 25 is near the peak of summer heat in LA, with average highs around 84°F, so a reading exactly 78°F would require an unusual and sustained cooling event.
What to watch
- • Any mid-July heatwave forecast for Southern California (likely direction: NO, as it would further reduce the chance of a mild 78°F high).
- • A strong El Niño or La Niña update from NOAA in early July (likely direction: NO if El Niño persists, as it tends to bring warmer conditions; YES if a strong La Niña develops, which could cool the region).
- • A sudden marine layer event or coastal eddy forecast for July 24-25 (likely direction: YES, as it could suppress temperatures to exactly 78°F).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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Yes ≈ 26% chance