Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.
The market gives only a 3% chance that LA's July 25 high reaches 78°F—a threshold almost always exceeded historically—suggesting either a severe cool anomaly or a misinterpretation of the contract, given no recent data supports such a cool outcome.
📊 Base rate: Based on 1991–2020 NOAA normals, Los Angeles (USC00051155) has a >95% historical probability of a daily high temperature ≥78°F on July 25.
What's driving it
- • No clear near-term catalyst; the most recent headlines (May–March 2026) discuss a historic March heat wave and new heat-tracking tools, which would typically imply above-normal temperatures but are inconsistent with the current odds.
- • The market may reflect stale pricing or a misinterpretation of the contract (e.g., if the threshold is for a different location or unit).
- • Because the event date (July 25) is already past as of July 26, the odds likely represent residual uncertainty before official data release, not active trading.
The case for YES
- • The March heat wave broke over 1,500 records in the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22), demonstrating extreme heat potential that could portend a hot summer.
- • Southern California coastal waters are at record warmth (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), which can suppress sea breezes and elevate land temperatures.
- • If the contract actually pays for temperatures below 78°F, then the 3% Yes would be consistent with a very hot day being unlikely—but that reading contradicts the contract label.
The case for NO
- • Climatology strongly favors a high above 78°F: the historical average high for July 25 in LA is ~85°F, making a sub-78 day a rare outlier.
- • Headlines highlight state heat monitoring (LA Daily News, May 28), signaling that authorities expect dangerous heat, not cool weather.
- • No headline or data point supports a cool anomaly in late July 2026; the only recent extreme-weather coverage is about record heat, not cold.
What to watch
- • Official temperature release from NOAA or LA weather station within 24–48 hours will resolve the contract; if the high is reported ≥78°F, odds should jump to 100%.
- • Revision of any erroneous contract interpretation by the venue could cause a sharp correction toward base-rate odds.
- • No further dated catalysts are identifiable from the provided headlines.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance