Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_78
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.
The market sees a 97% chance that LA's high on July 25, 2026, will not hit 78°F, reflecting a strong bet against a cool summer outlier despite recent record-breaking heat events.
📊 Base rate: The historical average July high in Los Angeles (downtown) is about 84°F, so a high of 78°F is roughly 6°F below normal, occurring in roughly 10-15% of July days over the past 30 years.
What's driving it
- • A historic March heatwave shattered over 1,500 records across the Southwest (FOX Weather, Mar 22), raising expectations for a hot summer overall, which pushes odds against a cool 78°F day.
- • The ocean off California continues breaking heat records (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16), suggesting persistent warm conditions that make a below-normal high less likely.
- • LA County's new Heat Dashboard (Los Angeles Daily News, May 28) underscores institutional focus on heat risks, reinforcing a narrative of elevated temperatures.
The case for YES
- • A single day's high can be an outlier; even in a hot summer, a cool marine layer or June gloom pattern could suppress the temperature to 78°F or below.
- • The March heatwave was historic but does not guarantee every summer day will be hot; seasonal variability could still produce a cooler day on July 25.
The case for NO
- • The March heatwave set record highs (The Guardian, Mar 19; USA Today, Mar 17), indicating a strong warming trend that makes a below-normal 78°F high unlikely in late July.
- • Persistent ocean heat records off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) suggest a warm baseline that typically raises coastal temperatures, reducing the chance of a cool day.
- • Climatologically, July 25 is near the peak of summer heat in LA, with average highs around 84°F, making a 78°F high a significant deviation that is rare.
What to watch
- • Any mid-July heatwave forecast for Southern California would push odds further toward No (lower chance of 78°F).
- • A strong El Niño or La Niña update from NOAA in early July could shift odds: El Niño typically raises odds of hot days (No), La Niña might slightly increase variability (Yes).
- • A week-long marine layer event in late July, if predicted by NWS, could temporarily boost Yes odds by suggesting cooler coastal conditions.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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Yes ≈ 26% chance