Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_96
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The 98% odds for Jacksonville hitting 96°F on July 26 reflect a short-term extreme heat event forecast just two days prior, but the historical volatility of Jacksonville's spring and summer temperatures—swinging from record highs to freezes within weeks—means the near-certainty may be overpriced.
📊 Base rate: Jacksonville's daily high in late July historically averages around 91°F, with 96°F or higher occurring roughly 5-10% of days in the hottest part of summer, based on NOAA climate normals.
What's driving it
- • A July 24 headline warns of 'extreme heat' ahead for Jacksonville this weekend, directly boosting the Yes odds two days before the contract date (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • Earlier in 2026, Jacksonville experienced record high temperatures in March, followed by a dramatic plunge into freezing conditions, showing the region's weather can shift rapidly (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27; FL Times-Union, Feb 19).
- • No clear catalyst explains the 98% level beyond the immediate heat forecast; the odds appear to heavily discount the possibility of a sudden cold front or cloud cover.
The case for YES
- • The most recent forecast explicitly calls for extreme heat in Jacksonville on the weekend of July 25-26, making a high of 96°F plausible (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • Florida temperatures flirted with record highs in March 2026, indicating the region can sustain above-normal heat even outside peak summer (Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9).
- • The contract is for a specific daily high, and a single hot afternoon—even with morning clouds—could easily reach 96°F given the July climatology.
The case for NO
- • Jacksonville's weather has shown extreme volatility in 2026, with a 50°F swing from record highs to near-freezing lows in just weeks, suggesting a cold front could disrupt the heat (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27; FL Times-Union, Feb 19).
- • The 2% No odds imply the market sees almost no chance of a miss, but a passing thunderstorm or sea breeze could cap temperatures below 96°F even on a hot day.
- • Earlier forecasts in May noted 'normal' temperatures returning after a hot spell, showing that heat waves are not always sustained (Daytona Beach News-Journal, May 13).
What to watch
- • July 26 morning weather balloon data or updated National Weather Service forecast could shift odds if a cold front or cloud cover is detected (likely direction: down for Yes).
- • Any report of a heat advisory or excessive heat warning issued for July 26 would reinforce the Yes case (likely direction: up for Yes).
- • If the actual high on July 25 falls short of 96°F, it may signal a cooler pattern and reduce Yes odds for the 26th (likely direction: down for Yes).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance