Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_96
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing near-certainty (98%) that Jacksonville will hit 96°F on July 26, driven by a July 24 forecast of extreme heat this weekend, making the outcome hinge on whether that specific forecast verifies.
📊 Base rate: The historical average high temperature in Jacksonville on July 26 is about 92°F, with daily highs exceeding 96°F occurring roughly 10–15% of years, so the current 98% odds are far above the climatological base rate.
What's driving it
- • The July 24 headline 'Extreme heat, storms ahead for Jacksonville this weekend' (FL Times-Union) directly forecasts high temperatures for the market date, pushing odds to 98%.
- • No other recent headlines contradict the heat forecast; earlier March and May stories about normal or record temps are too distant to affect the specific July 26 prediction.
- • The market's extreme odds reflect that short-range weather forecasts (1–2 days out) are highly reliable, so traders are betting the forecast holds.
The case for YES
- • The July 24 forecast explicitly warns of extreme heat for the weekend, which includes July 26, making 96°F a plausible target.
- • Jacksonville's typical July climate supports high temperatures near 96°F, especially during heat waves, and the forecast aligns with that pattern.
- • The market's 98% consensus indicates that forecast models and local expertise strongly favor a high above 96°F.
The case for NO
- • The same July 24 headline also mentions storms, which could bring cloud cover or rain that suppresses the afternoon high below 96°F.
- • Short-term forecasts can be wrong by a few degrees; a small error (e.g., actual high of 95°F) would resolve No despite the heat wave.
- • The 2% No odds reflect a non-zero chance that a cold front or sea breeze arrives earlier than predicted, capping temperatures.
What to watch
- • Updated National Weather Service forecast on July 25 or early July 26: a downgrade to below 96°F would spike No odds; an upgrade or confirmation would keep Yes near 100%.
- • Actual temperature readings on July 26, especially the 2 p.m. observation, will resolve the market; any reading below 96°F triggers No.
- • Any unexpected weather event (e.g., a thunderstorm outbreak) on July 26 could rapidly shift odds toward No as the day progresses.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance