Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_96
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market strongly expects Jacksonville's temperature to hit 96°F on July 25 based on an extreme heat forecast, but the same forecast warns of storms that could cap the high.
What's driving it
- • 2026-07-24 extreme heat and storms forecast for Jacksonville this weekend (FL Times-Union) drives Yes odds to 98%.
- • Earlier in 2026, Florida flirted with record highs in March (Daytona Beach News-Journal, Mar 9), reinforcing expectations of a hot summer.
The case for YES
- • The July 24 forecast explicitly calls for extreme heat over the weekend – the contract date is within the warned period.
- • Florida's March heat flirtations with records suggest a persistent warm pattern that extends into July.
The case for NO
- • The same July 24 forecast also predicts storms, which could trigger afternoon cloud cover or rain and limit the high temperature.
- • Jacksonville often experiences afternoon sea breezes in summer that can cap temperatures a few degrees below forecast highs, especially in July.
What to watch
- • Morning of July 25: updated National Weather Service forecast for Jacksonville high – a downward revision would increase No odds.
- • Midday on July 25: actual temperatures observed near 95°F may lead to late-day trading shifts toward No.
- • Issuance of an excessive heat warning on July 25 would further solidify Yes odds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance